[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 14.5N 36.9W at 25/2100 UTC or
730 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 16
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is within 300 nm of the center in
the W semicircle. Lorenzo will continue moving west-northwest
through Thursday. A turn toward the northwest is expected by
Thursday night. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major
hurricane on Thursday. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 22.9N 64.3W at 25/2100 UTC
or 290 nm NNE of San Juan Puerto Rico moving NNE at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 20N-27N between 61W-68W. A north-
northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected through early Friday. Karen is then expected to
slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern
Atlantic into the weekend. Some strengthening is possible during
the next few days. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry is centered near 32.2N 65.6W at
25/2100 UTC or 40 nm W of Bermuda moving ENE at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 600 nm of the center in the SE semicircle, from 25N to 35N.
A turn toward the east and east-southeast is expected over the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is
expected to pass near or over Bermuda in a few hours. Gradual
weakening of Jerry is expected during the next few days. Please
read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...A heavy rain event in Central America and Southeastern
Mexico...

Southwesterly monsoonal flow is pushing abundant moisture from
the tropical Pacific Ocean toward Central America. Heavy rainfall
is expected in Central America, through the weekend. The greatest
threat for heavy rainfall will migrate northwestward to areas
from southern Guatemala to southern Mexico, including in the
Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero. It is possible
that the heavy rains may lead to flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain and areas near the
Pacific coast.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 50W, from
05N-20N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate showers are
noted along the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W, to 06N16W and to 05N25W. Precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 270 nm to
the N of the monsoon trough, and within 240 nm to the south
of the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 23N91W to
20N89W with scattered showers. Surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1014 mb high centered
over southern Mississippi.

The surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula will move slowly
westward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico Sat.
Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A heavy rainfall event is expected in Central America and
southeastern Mexico. Please read the Special Features section
above for more details.

An upper level trough extends from a 24N73W upper level cyclonic
circulation center, into the waters that are between Jamaica,
Cuba, and Haiti. A surface trough is analyzed from 20N85W to
19N77W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and south of
the trough from 15N-20N between 74W-86W. To the east, the southern
periphery of T.S. Karen is enhancing convection across Puerto Rico
and adjacent waters. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle
winds across the whole basin.

A fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and
low seas will prevail across the western and central Caribbean
through Thu, with more typical conditions and trades returning by
the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical wave, Hurricane
Lorenzo, T.S. Karen and Post T.C. Jerry.

An upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic from a
cyclonic circulation center that is near 24N73W. This trough is
enhancing scattered showers mainly west of 70W. To the east, a
surface trough extends from 29N47W to 22N47W with scattered
showers. Upper level divergence is enhancing convection north of
37W-43W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin.

Tropical Storm Karen will move to 24.6N 63.9W Thu morning, 26.5N
63.0W Thu afternoon, 27.6N 61.8W Fri morning, 27.9N 60.8W Fri
afternoon, and 27.5N 60.5W Sat afternoon. Karen will change little
in intensity as it moves to 26.5N 63.5W Sun afternoon, and
continues to the 26.0N 67.0W Mon.

$$

ERA
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