[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231836
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Karen, at 23/1800 UTC, is near
15.5N 65.2W. Tropical Storm Karen also is about 180 nm/335 km to
the SSE of San Juan in Puerto Rico, and about 135 nm/250 km to
the S of St. Croix. Karen is moving NNW, or 335 degrees, 10
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45
knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within 90 nm
of the center in the NW quadrant, and within 150 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong
elsewhere within 300 nm of the center in the NE semicircle, and
within 450 nm of the center in the SW semicircle. Please read
the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Jerry, at 23/1500 UTC, is near
28.1N 68.0W. JERRY also is about 300 nm/560 km to the SW of
Bermuda. JERRY is moving NNW, or 330 degrees, 6 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within 60 nm to 120
nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 100 nm of the center
in the S quadrant, and within 210 nm to 330 nm of the center in
the S quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 480
nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Please read the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Depression Thirteen has intensified, and it has become
Tropical Storm Lorenzo. The center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo, at
23/1500 UTC, is near 11.1N 24.1W. Lorenzo is moving W, or 270
degrees, 16 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with
gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong
within 250 nm of the center in the W quadrant, and within 480 nm
of the center in the SW quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong within 270 nm of the center in the E semicircle.
Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/37W, from 23N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 250 nm to the east of the
wave from 09N to 15N. Isolated moderate to locally strong within
210 nm to the west of the wave from 10N to 20N, and within 120
nm to the east of the wave from 04N to 08N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is along 10N27W 06N44W. The ITCZ extends from
a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 08N47W, to the coast
of French Guiana near 06N53W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong elsewhere from 03N to 10N from 20W eastward,
and from 04N to 09N between 39W and 46W. for the 1012 mb low
pressure center that is near 08N47W: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong within 300 nm of the center in the NW
semicircle.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico and
Mexico, and the Texas Gulf coast, from south central Mexico to
30N between 90W and 102W. A surface trough is along 19N92W
22N94W 25N95W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 30N
southward from 90W westward.

A shear line is along 25N75W in the Atlantic Ocean, through the
Straits of Florida near 24N82W, to 23N88W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 75 nm on
either side of the shear line between 81W and 88W.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and seas to 8 feet, will continue
still through the Straits of Florida to offshore of the Yucatan
Peninsula, through Tuesday morning. The conditions will improve
gradually, as the pressure gradient between high pressure to the
N and lower pressure associated with a frontal trough across the
Straits weakens. New high pressure will develop in the northern
Gulf of Mexico tonight, and then it will move N slowly by the
end of the week. A weak NW to SE trough will extend from the W
central Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula through much of
the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 08N76W in Colombia, across southern
sections of Panama, to 09N86W in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: Isolated moderate in the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, from 13N southward from 73W westward.

Tropical Storm Karen near 14.9N 64.8W 1007 mb at 1500 UTC moving
N-NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Karen
will continue NNW towards the E coast of Puerto Rico, reaching
near 17.7N 65.8W Tue morning, then cross the local islands and
move northward into the Atlantic Ocean, reaching near 21.9N
65.7W Wed morning, then continue northward through Thursday.
Little change in intensity is expected while moving through the
Caribbean Sea. A fairly weak pressure pattern with light and
variable winds and low seas will prevail across the western and
central Caribbean Sea through Thursday. More typical conditions
and trade winds are forecast to return by the end of the week. A
tropical wave will reach the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean waters by
the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N42W to 29N50W to 27N59W.
Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 180 nm to the south of the front between 39W and 48W.

A shear line is along 25N75W in the Atlantic Ocean, through the
Straits of Florida near 24N82W, to 23N88W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 75 nm on
either side of the shear line between 81W and 88W.

A dissipating stationary front is along 31N10W 28N17W 28N23W
27N27W. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent.

Tropical Storm Jerry near 28.1N 68.0W 991 mb at 1500 UTC moving
NNW at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Jerry
will continue northward, reaching near 30.4N 68.4W Tue morning,
and exit the area waters reaching near 33.3N 65.0W Wed morning
before accelerating to the NE. Tropical Storm Karen across the
SE Caribbean will move northward and across eastern Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands, reaching near 17.7N 65.8W Tue morning,
near 21.9N 65.7W Wed morning, near 27.0N 65.8W Thu morning, and
then begin to veer westward towards the NW Bahamas.

$$
mt
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