[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231201 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATE
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019

UPDATE FOR T.S. KAREN

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Karen, 23/1200 UTC, is near 14.2N
64.4W. Tropical Storm Karen also is about 195 nm/360 km to the
WNW of St. Vincent, and about 210 nm/390 km to the S of St.
Croix. Karen is moving NW, or 320 degrees, 7 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends 140 nm SW
quadrant from 11N-13N between 64W-66W. On the forecast track,
the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea
through tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or
over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Some fluctuations in
strength will be possible during the next 48 hours due to strong
upper-level winds. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 27.8N 67.7W at 23/0900 UTC
or 355 nm SSW of Bermuda moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection prevails 200 nm in the NE and SE quadrant, from 25N-
30N between 63W-68W. Scattered showers extend out 400 to 420 nm
on the NE and SE quadrant. A turn to the north is expected
Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda by Tuesday night. Gradual weakening is expected during
the next few days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Tropical Depression Thirteen is located in the far Eastern
Atlantic at 23/0900 UTC. T.D. Thirteen is located near 10.8N
22.2W or 315 nm SSE of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands,
moving W at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds of
30 kt with gust to 40 kt. A motion toward the west-northwest is
expected tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
of the depression should pass well to the south of the Cabo
Verde Islands today and tonight. Strengthening is forecast
during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Tuesday
night or early Wednesday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 35W from 21N southward
is moving W at 10 kt. Model diagnostics depict this wave well.
Scattered showers and tstorms are noted along the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to a 1007 mb low near 10N20W to 06N37W to 07N42W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N43W to 06N54W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the sections above, scattered showers and tstorms
are seen approximately 200 nm on either side of the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the northern Gulf of Mexico,
anchored by a 1022 mb high centered in the western Atlantic. This
feature is keeping east to southeast surface flow across much of
the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the west
Atlantic across the Bahamas, to the Florida Straits near 24N80W
to the eastern Gulf near 23N86W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen along the boundary. In the western Gulf, scattered
showers and tstorms are present from 22N-26N and west of 92W-
95W. ASCAT data depicts fresh to strong NE to E winds over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico north of the front mainly east of 81W
from 23N- 29N. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds
prevail elsewhere across the basin.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas to 8 ft will still be
possible in and near the Straits of Florida through the early
morning. These winds and seas will gradually improve as the
pressure gradient between high pressure to the N and lower
pressure associated with a frontal trough across the Straits
weakens. New high pressure will develop along the northern Gulf
tonight, then will slowly lift N by the end of the week.
Otherwise, a weak NW to SE trough will extend from the W central
Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula through much of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for information on Tropical Storm
Karen in the SE Caribbean.

A surface trough extends from the west Atlantic across the
Bahamas, to the Florida Straits near 24N80W to the eastern Gulf
near 23N86W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen south of
Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and eastern Cuba. Scatterometer data
depicts light to gentle winds across most of the basin, except
the eastern Caribbean near T.S. Karen.

Karen will change little in intensity as it moves 26.5N 65.5W
early Fri, and continue to 27.0N 67.0W early Sat. Otherwise, a
fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and
low seas will prevail across the western and central Caribbean
through Thu, with more typical conditions and trades returning
by the end of the week as high pressure builds N of the area in
the wake of Karen. A tropical wave may reach the Tropical N
Atlantic waters by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and
Tropical Storm Jerry.

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N43W to 27N59W.
Surface trough is analyzed west of T.S. Jerry and extends from
26N73W across the Bahamas to 24N78W into the Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered moderate convection is seen 100 nm of the cold front
and scattered showers are seen in the vicinity of the trough.
Further east, a stationary front pass through the Canary Islands
near 31N09W to 28N19W to 27N26W. No significant convection is
noted with the front.

Jerry will change little in intensity as it continues farther
N-NE away from the basin. Tropical Storm Karen near 13.6N 63.9W
1007 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35
kt gusts 45 kt. Karen will move to 14.5N 64.6W this afternoon,
16.1N 65.2W Tue morning, 18.0N 65.6W Tue afternoon, 20.1N 65.5W
Wed morning, and 24.6N 64.9W Thu morning. Karen will change
little in intensity as it moves 26.5N 65.5W early Fri, and
continue to 27.0N 67.0W early Sat.

$$
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