[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Humberto is centered near 31.7N 69.6W at 18/0900 UTC or
250 nm W of Bermuda moving ENE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt
with gusts to 120 kt. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane.
Numerous strong convection is within 80 nm in the NE semicircle
and 60 nm in the SW and SE semicircle. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere within 300 nm in the NE quadrant, 90 nm
in the S semicircle, and 150 nm in the NW quadrant. Humberto will
continue to move ENE with a gradual increase in forward speed
through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-
northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the
core of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and
north of Bermuda later tonight. Some fluctuations in intensity are
likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a
powerful hurricane through early Thursday. A steady weakening
trend should begin later on Thursday. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
for more details.

T.D. Imelda has moved inland across Houston, Texas. See the
Weather Prediction Center for advisories on this system.

Tropical Storm Jerry, previously Tropical Depression Ten, is
centered near 14.1N 47.7W at 18/0900 UTC or 830 nm E of the
Leeward Islands moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 200 nm in
the W quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm in
the E semicircle, and elsewhere within 250 nm in the W
semicircle. A west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster
forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands
Thursday night or Friday. Further strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Jerry is expected to become a
hurricane by the time it moves near the northern Leeward Islands.
See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 38W S of 19N
is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are noted from 11N-
16N between 34W- 40W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 73W S of
20N is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is east of the wave from 13N-19N between 65W-71W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 81 W S of
18N is moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted along
this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 10N28W to 15N43W. The ITCZ begins west of T.S. Jerry
near 20N52W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Aside from the
convection already discussed in the Tropical Waves section above,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 05N-15N
between 12W- 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Numerous strong convection being caused by T.D. Imelda is
occurring across the NW Gulf, from 28N-30N between 93W-97W. A
surface trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from 19N92W to
22N91W. Scattered thunderstorms are seen in the Bay of Campeche
from 19N-22N between 92W-96W. Otherwise, strong upper level
ridging is stretching across the Gulf into the U.S. A 1015 mb
surface high pressure is analyzed in the central Gulf near 27N88W.
The latest scatterometer data depicts calm to light anticyclonic
winds in the eastern Gulf with gentle to moderate southerly winds
in the NW Gulf.

Showers and thunderstorms will persist into the morning off the
north Texas coast due to T.D. Imelda, now inland, but winds and
seas continue to diminish over the northwest Gulf. The low
pressure will continue to weaken as it moves farther inland
through Friday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build over the
north central Gulf in the wake of Imelda tonight, supporting
gentle to moderate winds through mid week, except for moderate to
fresh winds off the west coast of Yucatan at night. The high
pressure will dissipate later in the week in advance of a weak
cold front that is forecast to move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico then stall and dissipate over the southeast Gulf Fri into
Saturday. Fresh winds and building seas will follow the front
over the eastern Gulf Friday into Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the two
tropical waves currently over the Caribbean.

Scattered moderate convection is moving south of Cuba across the
Cayman Islands, from 19N-22N between 78W-84W. Scattered
thunderstorms are also noted S of Haiti and near NW Jamaica. There
are also scattered thunderstorms off the eastern coast of
Honduras and in the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered thunderstorms are
being enhanced by the eastern Pacific monsoon trough in the SW
Gulf S of 11N and E of 77W. Latest scatterometer data depicts
light to gentle trades prevailing across most of the basin except
east of 69W, where moderate to fresh winds are depicted.

Tropical Storm Jerry will move to 14.8N 49.4W this afternoon,
15.7N 52.0W Thursday morning, 16.8N 54.9W Thursday afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 17.9N 57.9W Friday morning off the
Leeward Islands, then move to 20.2N 64.2W Saturday morning. Jerry
will change little in intensity as it moves the east of the
Bahamas Saturday and Sunday. Moderate trade winds will persist
elsewhere over the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Humberto,
T.S. Jerry, and the tropical wave moving across the basin.

A 1018 mb surface high is over the central Atlantic near 30N39W. A
surface trough is analyzed from 18N54W to 24N55W with scattered
thunderstorms seen within 100 nm on either side of the trough. To
the east, a cold front enters the discussion area near 31N25W to
29N32W, then stalls from 29N32W to 21N51W. Showers are seen along
the front.

Hurricane Humberto will pass north of Bermuda Wednesday night and
farther into the central north Atlantic waters into Friday.
Tropical Storm Jerry will move to 14.8N 49.4W this afternoon,
15.7N 52.0W Thursday morning, 16.8N 54.9W Thursday afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 17.9N 57.9W Friday morning off the
Leeward Islands, then move to 20.2N 64.2W Saturday morning. Jerry
will change little in intensity as it moves the east of the
Bahamas Saturday and Sunday.

$$
AKR
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