[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
157 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Humberto is centered near 31.5N 70.4W at 18/0600 UTC or
290 nm W of Bermuda moving ENE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt
with gusts to 120 kt. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane.
Numerous strong convection is within 100 nm in the NE semicircle
and 90 nm in the SW and SE semicircle. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere within 300 nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm
in the S semicircle, and 180 nm in the NW quadrant. Humberto will
continue to move NE with a gradual increase in forward speed
through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-
northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the
core of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and
north of Bermuda Wednesday night. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a
powerful hurricane through early Thursday. A steady weakening
trend should begin later on Thursday. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
for more details.

Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 13.7N 46.7W at 18/0300
UTC or 900 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous strong
convection is within 150 nm in the W quadrant. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm in the E semicircle, and elsewhere
within 200 nm in the W semicircle. A west-northwestward motion
at a somewhat faster forward speed is expected over the next few
days. On the forecast track, the system will be near the northern
Leeward Islands Thursday night or Friday. Strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm by Wednesday morning. The system is
forecast become a hurricane by the time it moves near the northern
Leeward Islands. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Imelda is centered near 29.8N 95.5W at
18/0300 UTC, or 9 nm NW of Houston, Texas, moving N at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 80 nm in the NE and SW quadrants, within 210
nm in the SE quadrant, and within 50 nm in the NW quadrant. Imelda
is expected to continue moving north over the next couple of days
and will be over eastern Texas through Thursday. Gradual weakening
is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system should become
a remnant low by late Thursday. Imelda is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 18 inches across the upper coastal region of
Texas, including the Houston and Galveston areas. Rainfall amounts
of 4 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches are possible
across portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce significant to life-
threatening flash floods. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 35W S of
17N is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
12N- 16N between 34W-38W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 71W S of
19N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 15N-19N between 67W-72W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 80W S of
18N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered convection is from 11N-17N
between 77W-81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
20N16W to 12N26W to 15N51W. Aside from the convection already
discussed in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers
are noted from 03N-09N between 12W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.D Imelda is moving across the Houston, Texas area. Refer to the
section above for details.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is moving across the
eastern Bay of Campeche from 18N-21N and E of 94W. The rest of the
Gulf remains quiet under the strong upper level ridge. A 1015 mb
high near 27N87W. The latest scatterometer data depicts calm to
light anticyclonic winds in the eastern Gulf with gentle to
moderate southerly winds in the NW Gulf.

High pressure will build over the north central Gulf in the wake
of Imelda tonight, supporting gentle to moderate winds through mid
week, except for moderate to fresh winds off the west coast of
Yucatan at night. The high pressure will dissipate later in the
week in advance of a weak cold front that is forecast to move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico then stall and dissipate over
the southeast Gulf Friday into Saturday. Fresh winds and building
seas will follow the front over the eastern Gulf Friday into
Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the two
tropical waves currently over the Caribbean.

Numerous moderate to strong convection is moving south of Cuba
toward the Grand Cayman Islands, from 20N-22N between 79W-84W.
Scattered moderate convection is also seen in the Windward
Passage. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades
prevailing across most of the basin except east of 69W, where
moderate to fresh winds are depicted.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate much of the basin.
Tropical Depression Ten will change little in intensity as it
moves to 21.5N 67.0W late Saturday, and continue to 24.5N 70.5W
Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Humberto,
T.D.Ten, and the tropical wave moving across the basin.

A 1020 mb surface high is over the central Atlantic near 31N43W.
To the east, a cold front enters the discussion area near 31N27W
to 29N31W, then stalls from 29N31W to 21N51W. Showers are seen
along the front.

Hurricane Humberto will move to 32.0N 68.9W Wednesday morning,
33.4N 65.5W Wednesday evening. Humberto will pass north of
Bermuda Wednesday night and farther into the central north
Atlantic waters into Friday. Tropical Depression Ten will
strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.4N 48.2W Wed morning, move
to 15.3N 50.4W Wednesday evening, 16.2N 53.0W Thursday morning,
17.3N 56.0W Thursday evening, and strengthen to a hurricane near
19.5N 62.0W Fri evening. Ten will change little in intensity as it
moves to 21.5N 67.0W late Sat, and continue to 24.5N 70.5W Sun.

$$
AKR
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