[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
144 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W, moving across
the Cabo Verde Islands, from 20N southward, moving W 15 to 20
knots. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 15N to
18N between 19W and 21W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 10N to 20N from 25W eastward. This wave is forecast
to move westward quickly during the next several days. Some slow
development is possible during the weekend, when the system is a
few hundred miles to the east of the Windward Islands.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center
is along the wave near 14N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 12N to 16N between 46W and 56W, and
from 18N to 19N between 53W and 54W. Some slight development of
this system still is possible tonight and Wednesday. Upper level
winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone
formation by Thursday. This disturbance is expected to move
slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next
several days.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W, from 18N
southward, moving W 15 knots. No significant deep convective
precipitation is in the Caribbean Sea.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong rainshowers are from 18N northward from 80W
westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal near
14N17W to 10N23W, 10N27W 13N42W, to the 1010 mb low pressure
center that is along the 48W/49W tropical wave, to 10N54W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 300 nm
on either side of the line that runs from 07N12W to 05N21W, to
09N33W, to 12N38W, and to 16N46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Texas, Mexico, and the
Gulf of Mexico, from 20N northward into East Texas between 94W and
102W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
cover the Gulf of Mexico from 86W westward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the coastal
waters of Georgia. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is
near 25N76W, near Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are within 90 nm of the Florida west coast.
area upper level cyclonic circulation center that is near 25N76W,

A surface ridge N of the basin will support mainly moderate to
fresh NE to E wind flow through Friday. A surface trough will
move from the Florida Peninsula and the Straits of Florida, into
the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The trough will be accompanied
by scattered to numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near
21N62W, across Puerto Rico, to a point that is about 200 nm to the
south of Jamaica, to the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
Rainshowers are possible between 60W and 70W.

The monsoon trough is along 08N75W in Colombia, across Panama and
beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 12N
southward from 80W westward.

High pressure N-NE of the region will maintain moderate trade
winds, except pulsing to fresh to strong in the S central
Caribbean Sea. An eastern Caribbean Sea 66W tropical wave will
move into the central Caribbean Sea by early Thursday, then into
the western Caribbean Sea by the end of the week into the weekend.
A stronger tropical wave will approach the tropical N Atlantic
Ocean and the far eastern Caribbean Sea by the end of the upcoming
weekend, with gusty winds and squalls.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 35N66W cyclonic circulation
center, to 30N74W, to a Bahamas-area upper level cyclonic
circulation center that is near 25N76W, and eventually toward
Jamaica. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the
coastal waters of Georgia. Scattered to numerous strong
rainshowers have moved from Hispaniola into the northern coastal
waters, during the last few hours. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 250 nm on either
side of the line that runs from Bermuda to 25N70W to SE Cuba and
Jamaica. A surface trough is along 24N69W...22N72W...NW Haiti.
Ship reports indicate that tropical- storm-force wind gusts are
occurring in some of the heavier squalls. Limited development of
this disturbance is expected during the next few days, due to only
marginally conducive upper level winds. The system is forecast to
move slowly west- northwestward. It is possible that the
environmental conditions may become more favorable for
development, when the system moves through the Florida Straits and
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week and during the
weekend. This disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and
across Florida on Friday and continuing into the weekend.

An upper level trough extends from a 30N30W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 25N53W cyclonic circulation center, to 21N62W, toward
Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 700 nm to
the NW of the line that passes through 19N62W 24N44W 28N30W
beyond 32N24W.

A surface trough, from near the Windward Passage to the SE
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, will move WNW, slowly across
the basin, through the end of the week, reaching the Florida
Peninsula on Friday. The trough will be accompanied by scattered
to numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms. Relatively weak high
pressure will move northward, gradually, in advance of the
trough.

$$
MT
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