[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
810 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W, from 20N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the
wave axis. The wave is expected to move westward quickly during
the next several days. Some slow development is possible late this
week and over the weekend when the system is several hundred nm
east of the Lesser Antilles, and there is a low chance of tropical
cyclone formation within the next 5 days.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W, from 20N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb low is along the wave near 14N.
Scattered moderate showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.
Although some slight development is possible today or tomorrow,
upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation by Thursday. There is a low chance of tropical
cyclone formation during the next 2 days. This disturbance is
expected to move slowly westward for the next several days.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea along 66W from
17N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are mostly inland over NE Venezuela, with only
isolated showers seen over water east of the wave axis near the
Lesser Antilles.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 17N
southward, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over Honduras and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal near
14N17W to 10N25W to 13N40W to a 1011 mb low near 14N48W to
08N53W. The ITCZ extends from 08N53W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 11N-17N
between 14W-19W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
07N-15N between 32W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-15 kt easterly return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. A
diurnally induced surface trough is over the central Bay of
Campeche. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere over
S Mexico S of 20N.

An upper level low is centered over the NW Gulf near 28N96W, with
upper level diffluence over the central and eastern Gulf.
Isolated moderate convection is from 22N-28N between 81W-94W.

High pressure ridging N of the basin will support mainly moderate
to fresh NE to E flow through Fri. A trough will move from the
Florida Peninsula and Straits of Florida to across the basin this
weekend, accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become conducive for
slow development when the trough moves through the Gulf of
Mexico. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during
the next 5 days over the Gulf of Mexico from this trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are traversing the basin. See above.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and E Cuba mostly due to the southern extent
of a surface trough. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW
Caribbean from 17N-23N between 81W-87W. Elsewhere, scattered
moderate convection is over Costa Rica and Panama mostly due to
the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

High pressure N-NE of the region will maintain moderate trades,
except pulsing to fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean. A
tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean near 66W will move into
the central Caribbean by early Thu, then the western Caribbean by
the end of the week into the weekend. A stronger tropical wave
will approach the tropical N Atlc and far eastern Caribbean by the
end of the upcoming weekend with gusty winds and squalls.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough axis extends from 25N70W to the S Bahamas near
22N74W to E Jamaica near 18N76W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 21N-27N between 67W-74W. An upper-level is also centered
near 28N75W enhancing convection. Some of these thunderstorms
could be severe across the Bahamas, especially Thursday into
Friday. Heavy rainfall is likely in the SE and Central Bahamas Wed
and Thu, spreading to the Central and NW Bahamas on Friday.

A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N52W to
26N54W. An upper level low is just south of that, near 24N54W.
Scattered showers are from 22N-30N between 45W-56W. Farther E, a
surface trough is along 42W from 28N-31N inducing scattered
showers near the trough axis. Over the E Atlantic, another surface
trough extends from 31N30W to 27N33W. A large upper level low is
also centered near 29N32W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 27N-31N between 28W-36W.

Over the W Atlantic, a trough from near the Windward Passage to
across the SE Bahamas and Turks and Caicos will track WNW across
the basin through Thu night, reaching the Florida Peninsula Fri.
The trough will be accompanied by scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will
gradually lift northward through the week in advance of the
trough.

$$
Formosa
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