[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022332
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
732 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 02/2100 UTC, is located near
26.8N 78.4W which is about 20 nm NE of Freeport Grand Bahama
Island and about 90 miles E of West Palm Beach, Florida. Dorian
has an estimated central pressure of 940 mb and is currently
stationary. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to
150 kt. Dorian is a Category 4 hurricane. The eye of Dorian is
still well- defined in satellite imagery. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is from 24N-29N between 75W-80W.  A slow westward
to west- northwestward motion is expected to resume overnight and
continue into early Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast by late Tuesday, with a northeastward motion forecast to
begin by Wednesday night. On this track, the core of extremely
dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama
Island into Tuesday morning. The hurricane will then move
dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Tuesday through
Wednesday evening and then move dangerously close to the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts on Wednesday night and Thursday. See the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC for more details. Also, use the URL www.hurricanes.gov.

A 1006 mb low pressure center has developed along a tropical wave
near 16N30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N-21N
between 27W-32W. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that
the elongated area of low pressure, located a few hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands, has become better defined since
yesterday. Although this system is currently producing limited
showers and thunderstorms, a tropical depression is expected to
form during the next day or so while the system moves generally
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. The
chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours
is high.

A 1009 mb low pressure centered NNW of the Yucatan Peninsula,
centered near 24N92W, with a surface trough extending from 27N91W
to the low to 18N94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen mostly to the west of the low pressure center,
from 21N-29N between 92W-97W. This convective activity has become
more concentrated since last night. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next two or three days
while the low moves slowly westward or west-southwestward toward
the coast of Mexico. Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system. The chance of a
tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 30W. Refer to the Special
Features section above for details.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 50W S of 12N, moving W
15 knots. The convection occurring near this tropical wave is
related to monsoon trough from 08N-12N.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean along 71W S of 21N,
moving W around 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted
across Hispaniola from 18N-20N between 71W-73W in addition to NW
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Mauritania near 17N16W
to 16N30W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to the coast of
Guyana near 08N59W. Aside from the convection related to the
low/tropical wave along 28W and the other wave along 48W, scattered
moderate convection is noted along the boundaries from 07N-16N
between 32W- 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the low
pressure centered NNW of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds
across most of the basin, with locally fresh winds near the low
described above.

The broad low pressure will move slowly W over the SW Gulf
through mid week. This system could strengthen and has a medium
potential of becoming a tropical cyclone this week. In the
Atlantic, extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will begin to move
slowly NW away from the northern Bahamas tonight before turning
NNW to parallel the east coasts of Florida and Georgia through mid
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
currently across the central Caribbean.

Scattered thunderstorms are seen in the NW Caribbean from 18N-22N
between 83W-88W. Convection occurring over Cuba and Jamaica are
moving into adjacent waters mostly in the Windward Passage. The
east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing convection. Numerous
strong convection is moving off the coast of Colombia, S of 12N
between 75W-76W. Scattered thunderstorms are also moving along the
coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate trades across the central Caribbean with light
to gentle trades across the rest of the basin.

A tropical wave over the central Caribbean near 71W will reach
the western Caribbean Wednesday and exit W of the Caribbean by
Saturday. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the
eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades
prevailing over the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Dorian,
Special Features, and tropical waves.

A surface trough is located several hundred miles south-southeast
of Bermuda from 26N67W to 30N63W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 25N- 30N between 58W-66W.  Some gradual development of the
disturbance is possible during the next couple of days. Afterward,
upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for
tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor
the progress of this disturbance. The chance of a tropical
cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is low. Over the
central Atlantic, a dying cold front enters the waters near 31N40W
and extends to 28N49W. Surface ridging prevails across the rest of
the basin.

Hurricane Dorian will move to 27.0N 78.7W tonight, 27.6N 79.1W
Tuesday afternoon, 28.7N 79.7W Tuesday night, 30.0N 80.1W
Wednesday afternoon, and off the South Carolina coast near 32.8N
78.6W Thursday afternoon. Dorian will slowly weaken as it
continues paralleling the coast offshore the Carolinas through
Saturday.

$$
AKR
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