[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Dorian is located at 26.8N 78.3W at
02/1500 UTC, or 30 nm NE of Freeport Grand Bahama Island, moving
W at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Dorian is a
Category 4 hurricane. The eye of Dorian is still well-defined in
satellite imagery. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from
24N-29N between 75W-80W. A slow westward to west-northwestward
motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a
gradual turn toward the northwest and north. On this track, the
core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to
pound Grand Bahama Island through much of today and tonight. The
hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east
coast late tonight through Wednesday evening and then move
dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on
Wednesday night and Thursday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.
Also, use the URL www.hurricanes.gov.

A 1010 mb low pressure center has developed along a tropical wave near
15N28W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-19N
between 27W-32W. The precipitation pattern continues to show signs
of organization. With this, a tropical depression is expected to
form during the next day or so while the system moves generally
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. The
chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours
is high.

Broad low pressure centered just NNW of the Yucatan Peninsula,
centered near 24N92W, with a surface trough extending from 27N91W
to the low to 19N93W. This system has become better organized
since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form during the
next few days while the low moves slowly westward across the
south- central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of
Mexico. At this time, scattered moderate convection is from 21N-
28N between 90W- 97W. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop
during the next 48 hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 28W. Refer to the Special
Features section above for details.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 48W from 16N southward,
is moving W 15-20 knots. Monsoon trough related showers prevail
along the wave's axis from 07N-12N.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean, with axis extending
from 22N67W to 06N73W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted across the southern portion of the
wave affecting Venezuela and Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 18N16W to
15N28W to 10N46W. The ITCZ extends from 10N51W to 09N60W. Aside
from the convection related to the low/tropical wave along 28W and
the other wave along 48W, scattered moderate convection is noted
within 180 m of either side of the boundaries between 20W-57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the low
pressure centered NNW of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds
across most of the basin, with locally fresh winds near the low
described above.

The low pressure will move slowly W over the SW Gulf through mid
week. In the Atlantic, extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian is
over Grand Bahama Island in the northern Bahamas with maximum
sustained winds of of 135 kt and gusts to 165 kt. Dorian will
move slowly W through the northern Bahamas today before turning NW
then NNW to parallel the east coasts of Florida and Georgia
through mid week. Tropical storm force winds may affect the far
northeastern Gulf of Mexico, including the Florida Big Bend area,
tonight through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
currently across the central Caribbean.

The monsoon trough extends along 10N enhancing convection
across Central America and adjacent Caribbean waters between
77W-82W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades
across the basin.

The tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the
western Caribbean Wed into Thu and west of the area Fri into Sat.
Moderate to fresh winds are expected to pulse across the eastern
and central Caribbean through the forecast period, with gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Dorian,
Special Features, and tropical waves.

A surface trough is located several hundred miles south-southeast
of Bermuda from 30N61W to 25N65W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 24N-30N between 58W-65W. Although the associated showers and
thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, the system
does not have a well-defined surface center. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days while the
disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during
the next 48 hours is low. Over the central Atlantic, a cold front
passes through 31N39W to 27N48W. Scattered showers are noted along
the front. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere.

Dorian will move to 26.9N 78.7W this evening, 27.2N 79.1W Tue
morning, 28.1N 79.6W Tue evening, 29.3N 80.2W Wed morning, and
off the Georgia coast near 32N 79.4W Thu morning. Dorian will
slowly weaken as it continues to move to the north of the area
early Fri, and continue paralleling the coast offshore the
Carolinas into Saturday.

$$
ERA
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