[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021147
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 02/0900 UTC, is near 26.6N
78.1W. This position is about 35 nm/65 km to the east of Freeport
in Grand Bahama Island, and about 110 nm/200 km to the east of
West Palm Beach in Florida. Dorian is moving W, or 270 degrees, 1
knot. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 155 knots with gusts
to 190 knots. Dorian is a Category 5 hurricane. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 916 mb. The eye of Dorian is
impressive and well-defined in satellite imagery. Numerous strong
rainshowers are are within 60 nm to 90 nm of the center. Scattered
to numerous strong rainshowers also are within 150 nm of the
center in the SE semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are elsewhere within 270 nm of the center in the E
semicircle. Isolated moderate rainshowers also are from 30N
northward from 70W westward. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for DORIAN are
available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header
MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for DORIAN are available via
the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.
The URL for more information is www.hurricanes.gov.

A 1006 mb low pressure center is in the Atlantic Ocean near
15N27W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, in
clusters, are within 180 nm of the center in the N semicircle.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 75 nm to 240
nm of the center in the SW quadrant. The precipitation pattern is
beginning to show signs of organization. The environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for a tropical depression to
form during the next day or so, while the system moves generally
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible in the Cabo Verde Islands through
Tuesday. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the
next 48 hours is high.

Broad low pressure centered just NNW of the Yucatan Peninsula,
centered near 22N90W. This system has become better organized
since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form during the
next few days while the low moves slowly westward across the
south- central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of
Mexico. The chance of a tropical
cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 27W. Refer to the Special
Features section above for details.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W from 16N southward, moving
W 15-20 knots. Monsoon trough related rainshowers are from 06N to
14N between 40W and 50W.

A tropical wave is along 22N67W to 5N68W to 08N72W, moving west
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the
southern portion of the wave affecting Venezuela and Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 17N16W to
08N43W. Aside from the convection related to the low/tropical
wave along 27W, scattered moderate convection is noted within 180
m of either side of the monsoon trough between 36W-44W.

A surface trough is along 16N57W to 12N52W. Scattered showers are
noted within 75nm on either sides of this trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 28N91W to a 1008 mb low center that
is just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N90W,
southeastward into the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala. Scattered
moderate convection is noted with these features mainly south of
29N between 88W-95W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
easterly winds across most of the basin, with locally fresh winds
near the convection described previously.

The low pressure will move slowly W over the SW Gulf through mid
week. This low pressure may strengthen some and has a low
potential for tropical development through the week. In the
Atlantic, extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian is over Grand
Bahama Island in the northern Bahamas with maximum sustained winds
of 145 kt and gusts to 175 kt. Dorian will move slowly W through
the northern Bahamas today before turning NW then NNW to parallel
the east coasts of Florida and Georgia through mid week. Tropical
storm force winds may affect the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
including the Florida Big Bend area, tonight through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean
Sea and Central America near Nicaragua and Honduras, from 20N
southward from 76W westward. No significant deep convective
precipitation is in the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough passes through 11N75W in Colombia, through the
border area of Colombia and eastern Panama, beyond southern Panama
and the border of Panama and Costa Rica, and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Warming cloud top temperatures and dissipating but
lingering rainshowers are from 12N southward from 75W westward,
including inland areas from Colombia to Costa Rica.

A 68W tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea, will reach the
central Caribbean Sea late tonight, and the western Caribbean Sea
on Wednesday. Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with gentle to moderate winds
prevailing in the NW Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad middle level cyclonic wind flow , related to an inverted
trough, covers the area that is from 20N northward between 50W and
60W. A surface trough is from 28N59W to 23N62W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 24N-28N between 58W-64W. To the east,
a cold front passes through 31N41W to 29N45W to 29N50W. Scattered
showers cover the area that is from 28N northward between 40W and
50W. An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation
center that is along the northern coast of Morocco, to 30N20W, to
28N32W, to a second cyclonic center that is near 25N38W, to
20N43W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence surrounds the
trough.

Dorian will move to 26.7N 78.7W this afternoon, 26.9N 79.0W Tue
morning, 27.6N 79.5W Tue afternoon, 28.7N 80.0W Wed morning, and
31.3N 79.8W Thu morning. Dorian will slowly weaken as it moves to
the to the north of the area early Fri, and continue paralleling
the coast offshore the Carolinas into Saturday.

$$
MT/ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net