[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 02/0600 UTC, is near 26.6N
78.1W. This position is about 35 nm/65 km to the east of Freeport
in Grand Bahama Island, and about 110 nm/200 km to the east of
West Palm Beach in Florida. Dorian is moving W, or 270 degrees, 4
knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 155 knots with gusts
to 190 knots. Dorian is a Category 5 hurricane. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 916 mb. The eye of Dorian is
impressive and well-defined in satellite imagery. Numerous strong
rainshowers are are within 60 nm to 90 nm of the center, and
within 180 nm of the center in the SE semicircle. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere the Atlantic Ocean side of Cuba
to 30N from 70W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers also are
from 30N northward from 70W westward. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for
DORIAN are available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC, and via the
AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for DORIAN are
available via the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header
MIATCMAT5. The URL for more information is www.hurricanes.gov.

A 1006 mb low pressure center is in the Atlantic Ocean near
14N26W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, in
clusters, are within 60 nm on either side of the line from 13N31W
to 18N26W. This system is becoming better organized, gradually.
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for additional
development during the next several days. It is likely that a
tropical depression may form by the middle of the week, while the
system is moving generally northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of
the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the next day or two.
Interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this
system. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the
next 48 hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W, from 16N
southward, moving W 20 knots. Monsoon trough related rainshowers
are from 06N to 13N between 40W and 50W.

A tropical wave is along 22N65W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
Puerto Rico, to 16N67W in the Caribbean Sea, to 09N68W in
Venezuela. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm on
either side of the tropical wave from 16N northward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border area of
Mauritania and Senegal, to the 14N26W 1006 mb low pressure center,
to 11N37W, to 09N48W. The ITCZ continues from 09N48W to 09N51W
and 09N61W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
within 240 nm to 360 nm on either side of the line that runs from
10N between 14W and 50W.

A surface trough is along 11N52W 13N55W 16N57W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of
the line that runs from 10N50W 12N54W 16N57W 19N57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 28N90, to a 1008 mb low pressure
center that is just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula near
22N89W, southeastward into the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in
the Gulf of Mexico from 21N northward, and in Central America
from El Salvador to western Honduras to Guatemala.

Low pressure, just N of the Yucatan Peninsula, will move slowly
W across the western Gulf of Mexico through mid week. Category 4
Hurricane Dorian is in the Atlantic Ocean, near 26.4N 76.0W,
moving W 7 knots, and maximum sustained winds 130 knots with
gusts to 160 knots. Dorian will move through the northern
Bahamas through early Monday. Dorian will turn NW, then NNW, in
order to parallel the east coasts of Florida and Georgia through
mid week. Tropical storm force winds will stay mainly to the
east of the far eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
including the Florida Big Bend area, from Monday night through
Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean
Sea and Central America near Nicaragua and Honduras, from 20N
southward from 76W westward. No significant deep convective
precipitation is in the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough passes through 11N75W in Colombia, through the
border area of Colombia and eastern Panama, beyond southern Panama
and the border of Panama and Costa Rica, and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Warming cloud top temperatures and dissipating but
lingering rainshowers are from 12N southward from 75W westward,
including inland areas from Colombia to Costa Rica.

Category 4 Hurricane Dorian is moving slowly W across the
Atlantic Ocean, in the open waters that are just E of the northern
Bahamas. A tropical wave, in the far eastern Caribbean Sea, will
reach the central Caribbean Sea by Monday night, and the western
Caribbean Sea by Wednesday. Moderate to fresh winds are expected
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with gentle to
moderate winds prevailing in the NW Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad middle level cyclonic wind flow , related to an inverted
trough, covers the area that is from 20N northward between 50W and
60W. A surface trough is along Scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 21N to 28N between 57W and 63W.

A cold front passes through 32N40W to 29N44W to 29N50W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 28N northward
between 40W and 50W.

An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center
that is along the northern coast of Morocco, to 30N20W, to 28N32W,
to a second cyclonic center that is near 25N38W, to 20N43W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence surrounds the trough.

Category 4 Hurricane Dorian near 26.4N 76.0W 934 mb at 5 AM EDT
moving W at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt.
Dorian will move to 26.6N 77.1W this afternoon, 26.7N 78.1W Mon
morning, 26.9N 78.7W Mon afternoon, 27.0N 79.0W Tue morning, and
27.6N 79.4W Wed morning. Dorian will weaken slightly in
intensity as it moves to the 28.9N 79.8W early Thu, and continue
to near 31.8N 79.6W early Fri.

$$
MT
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