[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Rebekah is centered near 40.7N 35.3W at 31/1500
UTC or 480 nm WNW of the Azores. The estimated central pressure
is 990 mb and estimated maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt
with gusts to 50 kt. Rebekah is moving ENE at 18 kt. Scattered
showers are seen within 80 nm of the center in the NE quadrant.
An eastward turn with some increase in forward speed is
anticipated by early Friday. The storm should weaken and become
a post-tropical cyclone by this evening or early tomorrow. See
the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...Western Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front stretches across the western Gulf of Mexico from
30N88W to 23N94W to 20N96W. Gale force winds are ongoing NW of
the front and seas building to 8-13 ft. As the front pushes
eastward, gale-force winds will continue behind the front, mostly
S of 21N and W of 94W. Seas are expected to reach 22 ft. These
conditions will continue through early Friday. See the latest High
Seas Forecast product, listed under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W S of 18N and is
moving W at 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are seen along the
northern portion of the wave but no significant convection is
noted south of 16N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 61W S of 16N and is
moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the
northern portion of the wave from 13N-15N.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W S of 18N and
is moving W at 10 kt. Limited convection is noted along the wave
axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W S of 22N and is
moving W at 10 kt. An upper level low is in the wave's environment
which is enhancing scattered moderate convection in the northern
vicinity of the wave from 19N-24N.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W to 06N23W to 05N35W. The ITCZ continues from
05N45W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the monsoon
trough and ITCZ from 00N-09N between 23W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is pushing across the NW Gulf of Mexico. See the
special features section for more details. Scattered moderate
convection is seen adjacent to the front mostly from 18N-23N and
W of 93W, and scattered showers and tstorms from 24N-30N between
86W-90W. A surface trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from
18N94W to 22N92W. The latest scatterometer data depicts gale force
winds off the Texas coast and calm to light winds across the Gulf.

A strong cold front extending from the Mouth of the Mississippi
to near Veracruz Mexico will push SE to extend from the Big Bend
of Florida to the southern Bay of Campeche tonight, then from
central Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri. Winds W of the front
will peak at strong gale force near Tampico today and at minimal
storm force near Veracruz this evening. Seas near Veracruz will
peak near 22 ft tonight. Winds W of the front will diminish to
below gale force Fri morning. Strong high pressure behind the
front will support fresh to strong N to NE winds across the basin
this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

An upper level low is centered across western Cuba. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the SW Caribbean due to
enhancement from the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, mostly S of
15N between 78W-83W. Isolated showers are also noted off the NE
coast of Honduras and in the Gulf of Honduras. Latest scatterometer
data depicts fresh winds north of Colombia, the Gulf of Venezuela,
and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds are seen in the central
Caribbean, otherwise gentle winds prevail across the rest of the
basin.

Moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the Caribbean
through Sun. Large long period NE swell will continue propagating
through the tropical north Atlantic waters and the Caribbean
passages through Fri. Seas will gradually subside Fri night
through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the eastern and central Atlantic,
entering the waters near 31N33W to 19N54W to 22N67W. The front
stalls from 22N67W northward into the western Atlantic near
30N74W. A surface trough is seen in the Bahamas from 21N71W to
26N75W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 nm of
the front in addition to 150 nm behind the front between 44W-59W.
The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh ENE winds
are seen across the Atlantic, N of 20N between 54W-63W behind the
front. A surface trough is seen ahead of the front from 19N42W to
25N37W. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted along the trough
axis.

High pressure N of the region will shift eastward through Fri
ahead of a cold front moving into the far NW waters Fri. The front
will reach from 31N75W to southern Florida Fri night, then stall
and dissipate Sat through Sun. Large long period NE swell
affecting the forecast area will gradually subside Fri and Sat.

$$
Torres
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