[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
646 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Rebekah is centered near 39.7N 36.7W at 31/0900
UTC or 465 nm WNW of the Azores. The estimated central pressure
is 987 mb and estimated maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Rebekah is moving ENE at 20 kt. Scattered
showers are seen within 100 nm of the center in the NE quadrant.
Rebekah is expected to continue moving ENE today and Little change
in strength is expected today, but gradual weakening is forecast
to begin by this afternoon or tonight. Rebekah should become a
post-tropical cyclone by this afternoon or evening. See the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...Western Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front stretches across the western Gulf of Mexico from
30N92W to 22N98W. Gale force winds are ongoing NW of the front and
seas building to 8-13 ft. As the front pushes eastward, gale-
force winds will continue behind the front, mostly S of 21N and W
of 94W. Seas are expected to reach 22 ft. These conditions will
continue through early Friday. See the latest High Seas Forecast
product, listed under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W S of 18N and is
moving W at 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are seen along the
northern portion of the wave but no significant convection is
noted.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W S of 17N and is
moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the
northern portion of the wave from 13N-15N.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W S of 19N and
is moving W at 10 kt. Showers are noted along the ABC islands near
the wave vicinity.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W S of 23N and is
moving W at 10 kt. An upper level low is in the wave's environment
which is enhancing scattered moderate convection in the northern
vicinity of the wave from 19N-24N.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W to 07N23W to 05N34W. The ITCZ continues from
05N34W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from
02N- 08N between 21W- 41W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is also moving off the African coast from 05N- 10N and
E of 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is pushing across the NW Gulf of Mexico. See the
special features section for more details. Scattered moderate
convection is seen adjacent to the front mostly from 21N-29N and
W of 89W. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen in the central Bay
of Campeche and along the Mexican coast. A surface trough is
analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from 19N92W to 24N91W. Isolated
thunderstorms are also noted off the central Florida coast. The
latest scatterometer data depicts gale force winds off the Texas
coast and calm to light winds across the Gulf.

The strong cold front will extend from the big bend of Florida to
the Bay of Campeche tonight and from central Florida to the
eastern Bay of Campeche on Friday. Gale force winds to 45 kt and
high seas to 22 ft are expected W of the front along the coast of
Mexico. Winds will diminish below gale force by Friday morning.
Strong high pressure behind the front will support fresh north to
northeast winds across the basin during the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

An upper level low is centered across western Cuba. See the
tropical waves section for more details on convection associated
with it. Showers are moving between southern Cuba and  Jamaica.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the SW
Caribbean due to enhancement from the eastern Pacific monsoon
trough, mostly S of 12N between 77W-83W. Isolated showers are also
noted off the NE coast of Honduras and in the Gulf of Honduras. Latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh winds north of Colombia, the
Gulf of Venezuela, and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds are
seen in the central Caribbean, otherwise gentle winds prevail
across the rest of the basin.

Moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the Caribbean
through Sunday. Large long period NE swell propagating through
the tropical north Atlantic waters and the Caribbean passages will
continue through Friday. Seas will gradually subside Friday night
through Saturday night.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the eastern and central Atlantic,
entering the waters near 31N33W to 20N49W to 22N67W. The front
stalls from 22N67W northward into the western Atlantic near
31N74W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 nm of
the front in addition to 100 nm behind the front between 33W-56W.
The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh ENE winds
are seen across the Atlantic, N of 22N between 51W-72W. Strong
winds are also seen behind the cold front N of 30N.

High pressure north of the region will shift eastward through
Friday ahead of a cold front moving into the southeast U.S. Large
long period NE swell across the forecast area will gradually
subside Friday and Saturday. A cold front will move off the coast
of NE Florida late tonight, followed by fresh to locally strong
NW-N winds. The front will reach from 31N75W to southern Florida
Friday night, then stall and dissipate Saturday through Sunday.

$$
AKR
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