[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...WARNING: Gale-Force winds in the Central Atlantic Ocean...

A cold front passes through 32N34W, to 26N40W 22N50W 21N60W
24N70W 27N73W 28N77W. The front becomes stationary at 28N77W,
and the front continues to 32N79W. A surface trough is within
120 nm to 150 nm to the north of the front from 60W eastward,
and within 210 nm to the northeast of the front between 60W and
70W.

Expect: N of 27N E of the cold front...SW WINDS 25 to 35 knots.
Sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 18 feet. These conditions
are forecast for the next 6 hours or so. Please, read the latest
High Seas Forecast product, listed under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...Western Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will push eastward across the western Gulf of Mexico
from 30N93W to 26N97W on Wednesday night. Gale force winds are
expected NW of the front with seas to 9 feet. The front will
move eastward. The front's position will extend from 27N83W to
18.5N93W. Gale-force winds are forecast to be S of 21N and W of
the front. The sea heights are expected to range from 12 feet to
18 feet. These conditions will continue through early Friday.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast product, listed under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: disorganized
and isolated moderate to locally strong from 05N to 20N between
40W and 50W. This wave is along the leading edge of a dry
and dusty Saharan airmass.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: disorganized
and isolated moderate from 08N to 15N between 50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. The southern end of an
upper level trough reaches the central sections of the eastern
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N
southward, from 70W eastward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from 70W
westward, including Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate from
17N northward from Haiti westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 08N18W 05N25W and 05N30W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N30W, to 10N41W, and then from 08N46W to 08N50W
and 10N52W. Precipitation: Disorganized isolated moderate to
locally strong from 10N southward from 40W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is in the Texas coastal waters, from 27N
northward. The forecast is for the front to move eastward and
southeastward, and in about 12 hours, help to create gale-force
NW to N winds, to the NW of the front. The forecast position of
the cold front is from 30N91W to 23N97W in 12 hours.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 25N northward from 87W
westward.

The current front will move into the NW Gulf tonight, as a cold
front, followed by gale force winds. The front is forecast to
reach from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thursday
morning, and from near the Tampa Bay area to the central part of
the SW Gulf of Mexico by Thursday night. At that time, the wind
speeds are forecast to peak, ranging from 35 knots to 45 knots
with sea heights ranging from 14 feet to 21 feet, in the SW Gulf
of Mexico. The wind speeds are expected to diminish to less than
gale-force by Friday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from 70W
westward, including Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate from
17N northward from Haiti westward.

The southern end of an upper level trough reaches the central
sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated
moderate from 16N southward, from 70W eastward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from the border of Colombia
with Venezuela, beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered
strong from 08N to 10N between 76W and 78W near the
Colombia/Panama border, in northern Colombia and its coastal
waters from 10N to 11.5N between 73W and 75W, and in the
southern part of Lake Maracaibo of Venezuela. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from eastern Honduras southward
between 78W and 87W.

Moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the Caribbean
Sea through Sunday. Reinforcing large NE swell is propagating
through the tropical north Atlantic Ocean waters, today, as well
as all the Caribbean Sea passages. This swell, with seas in the
range of 8 feet to 9 feet, will subside on Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N34W, to 26N40W 22N50W 21N60W
24N70W 27N73W 28N77W. The front becomes stationary at 28N77W,
and the front continues to 32N79W. A surface trough is within
120 nm to 150 nm to the north of the front from 60W eastward,
and within 210 nm to the northeast of the front between 60W and
70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within
180 nm to the east of the front from 25N northward, and within
60 nm to the E and SE of the front between 40W and 53W.
Rainshowers are possible also, elsewhere, in the Atlantic Ocean,
from 18N northward from 30W westward. GALE-FORCE WINDS: N of 27N
E of the cold front...SW WINDS 25 to 35 knots. Sea heights
ranging from 12 feet to 18 feet.

High pressure building southward across the region will support
moderate to fresh winds through early Friday. Large long period
NE swell will continue to move across the forecast waters and
reach the Caribbean Sea passages on Thursday evening, before
subsiding on Saturday. The sea heights that will be associated
with this swell event are expected to peak in the range from 10
feet to 11 feet. A cold front will move off the coast of
northern Florida on Friday. The front will stall from 31N74W to
West Palm Beach, Florida, from Friday evening through Sunday.

$$
mt
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