[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...Central Atlantic Gale Warning...

A central Atlantic cold front will produce Gale force winds N
of 24N and east of the front to 38W with seas 15-18 ft. These
conditions will continue through Wednesday afternoon. See the
latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Western Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will push eastward across the western Gulf of Mexico
from 30N93W to 26N97W on Wednesday night. Gale force winds are
expected NW of the front with seas to 9 ft. As the front moves
farther east, it will stretch from 27N83W to 18.5N93W with gale
force winds S of 21N and W of the front. Seas are expected to be
12-18 ft. These conditions will continue through early Friday. See
the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 43W S of
16N and is moving west at about 10 kt. This wave is along the
leading edge of a dry/dusty Saharan airmass and is well depicted
in satellite imagery. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted in the north and eastern portion of the wave from 10N-19N
between 41W-42W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 53W S of
13N and is moving west at about 10 kt. This wave is also well
depicted in satellite imagery. There is scattered showers and
tstorms in the vicinity of the wave axis from 08N-10N between
52W-55W.

An eastern Carribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 66W S
of 19N and is moving west at 10 kt. This wave is well depicted in
satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails along
the central portion of the wave from 12N-15N between 63W-67W.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave extends it axis along 82W
S of 21N and is moving west at 10-15 kt. An upper-level low is in
the wave's environment combining with it to enhance convection
near the wave from 18N-19N between 79W-84W, and to the south of
the wave from 09N-13N between 78W-83W. The Pacific monsoon trough
extends along 10N. This is also enhancing convection with the
wave mainly south of 09N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N12W to 07N22W to 05N29W. The ITCZ extends from that point to
07N36W to 09N42W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 08N44W
to 07N49W to 09N52W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon
trough and part of the ITCZ from 01N-08N between 15W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends across the northern Gulf along the Florida
Panhandle near 30N83W to near 30N86W. The front continues across
Alabama and Louisiana and enters the NW Gulf as a stationary
front near 29N93W to just off the SE Texas coast near 28N95W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the
front mainly north of 28N between 85W-91W. A surface trough is
over the NW Gulf from 20N94W to 23N90W. Scattered showers are in
the vicinity of the trough. Latest scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh southerly winds in the north-central Gulf with
light to moderate winds elsewhere.

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Thu, extend
from the big bend of Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Thu night
and from southern Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri
afternoon. Gale force northerly winds and building seas up to 17
ft are expected W of the front along the coasts of Texas and
Mexico early on Thu through Fri morning. Marine conditions will
improve significantly Fri night and Sat in the basin as the front
stalls and weakens.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

An upper level low centered between Cayman Islands and Jamaica is
leading to scattered moderate convection across the Windward
Passage. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are noted across the
Gulf of Honduras and the central Caribbean. The latest scatterometer
data depicts fresh easterly winds north of Colombia and the Gulf
of Honduras with moderate trades across the central and eastern
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are also noted in the Gulf of
Honduras. Light to gentle trades prevail elsewhere.

Moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the Caribbean
through Sun. Reinforcing large NE swell is propagating through the
tropical north Atlantic waters today as well as all the Caribbean
passages. This swell with seas in the 8 to 9 ft range will
subside Sat night. Otherwise, two tropical waves moving across the
Caribbean will support scattered showers over the western and SE
basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for information about the Gale
Warning currently in effect and the tropical waves moving across
the basin.

A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N36W to
21N53W to 26N71W to 29N76W. The front ahead of it is about 120 nm
southeast and is gradually weakening. Behind the front a surface
trough is noted from 28N41W to 25N55W to 29N67W. Between these
two fronts, scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from
24N- 31N between 32W- 41W. Scattered showers are also seen along
the boundary. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern
Atlantic. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to gale
force winds in the area discussed in the Gale Warning section in
addition to fresh northerly winds N of 23N between 29W-57W, and
fresh to strong winds are seen behind the trough north of 25N.

$$
Torres
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