[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is centered near 24.3N 92.5W
at 18/0900 UTC or 390 nm SW of the mouth of the Mississippi River
moving NE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen E of the low from
19N-27N between 85W-92W, scattered showers and isolated tstorms
are along the northern Gulf coast from 27N-30N between 83W-93W.
On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf
Coast later today and tonight, and then move over portions of the
southeastern United States on Saturday. The disturbance is expected
to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm later today, and
a slow strengthening is then anticipated. An Air Force plane will
investigate the disturbance again in a few hours. There is a high
chance for tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. See the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 12N southward,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in
the vicinity of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles along 62W from 21N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 12N-18N between 56W-63W, impacting the
islands from St. Lucia north to Guadeloupe. Expect enhanced rains
over the Lesser Antilles through the day with the passage of this
wave.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The mid-upper level high along
with subsidence is near the wave in addition to low moisture
content which is limiting the convection near the wave. There are
still some scattered showers in the vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the border of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 05N32W. The ITCZ extends from 06N37W to 05N51W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen within 420 nm north of the monsoon
trough 27W-32W, and 250 nm north of the ITCZ between 39W-47W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is over the Gulf of Mexico. See
Special Features section above for details.

A stationary front extends from 26N82W to 27N89W to 24N96W.
Strong upper-level divergence over the Gulf of Mexico, the
stationary front, and Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are
enhancing scattered moderate convection over the basin,
especially near the coastal areas in the northern Gulf.

TC Sixteen will move to 26.8N 89.8W this afternoon, 29.0N 87.0W
Sat morning, and inland near 31.5N 84.5W Sat afternoon. It will
slowly expand in size and strengthen prior to making landfall in
the western Florida Panhandle Sat morning. Marine conditions will
improve rapidly across the basin Sat night and Sun as the cyclone
accelerates off to the NE into the W Atlc. A cold front will reach
the NW Gulf Mon night, and extend across the basin from northern
Florida to NE Mexico on Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above.

A large mid-upper level high along with subsidence covers much of
the central and northern Caribbean. Precipitation is enhanced over
the Lesser Antilles in association to the tropical wave and in
the SW Caribbean near the other tropical wave along 81W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is present near the Pacific
monsoon trough south of 11N between 75W-80W.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the basin
through the weekend, with fresh SE winds likely near the Yucatan
Channel through Sat as Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen moves NE
across the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave moving across the
Lesser Antilles will be accompanied by active weather as it moves
W across the eastern Caribbean through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N64W to 27N71W to
27N77W, then transitions to a stationary front north of the
Bahamas across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers
and tstorms are seen about 180 nm SE of the front from 28N-21N
between 60W- 64W. Isolated showers and tstorms are over the north
Bahamas and from 28N-31N between 59W-67W. A trough is seen east
of the front from 25N54W to 30N56W. No significant convection is
seen near this trough at this time. A 1016 mb surface high is
centered near 25N61W. An upper-level trough extends northeastward
from the NE Caribbean to 25N57W to 31N45W. Cloudiness along with
scattered showers and isolated tstorms is within 150 nm either
side of a line that extends from 22N52W to 31N48W. In the eastern
Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 16N31W to 23N32W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the northern
end of this trough from 22N-26N between 25W-29W. An E-W high
pressure ridge extends along 30/32N between 15W- 38W.

A weakening cold front extending from 31N66W to central Florida
will move eastward into the central Atlantic through tonight.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen in the SW Gulf of Mexico will
move NE across the SE U.S. this weekend, and produce strong to
near gale force southerly winds ahead of it across NW Atlc waters
tonight through Sun night. Weak high pressure will prevail over
the area Mon and Tue. A cold front will move off the coast of
northern Florida Tue night.

$$
MMTorres
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