[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
157 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is centered near 24.1N 93.7W
at 18/0300 UTC or 445 nm SW of the mouth of the Mississippi River
moving NE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen E of the low from
21N-26N between 89W-93W, scattered showers and isolated tstorms
are further north closer to the northern Gulf coast from 26N-29N
between 83W-93W. On the forecast track, the system will approach
the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Friday night and then move over
portions of the SE United States on Saturday. The disturbance is
expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm on
Friday, with slow strengthening then expected through Friday
night. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone formation
within 48 hours. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC or the website
hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 12N southward,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in
the vicinity of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles along 60W from 21N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 11N-20N between 56W-60W, impacting the
islands of St. Lucia north to Dominica. Expect enhanced rains
over the Lesser Antilles tonight through Friday morning with the
passage of this wave.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are in the
vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the border of Senegal near
13N16W to 06N34W. The ITCZ extends from 06N39W to 04N52W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 350 nm north of the
monsoon trough 26W-32W, and along the ITCZ between 37W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is over the Gulf of Mexico. See
Special Features section above for details.

A stationary front extends from Venice Florida near 27N82W to
27N89W to 26N96W, dissipating to 23N96W. Strong upper-level
divergence over the Gulf of Mexico, the stationary front, and
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are enhancing scattered
moderate convection over the basin, especially near the coastal
areas in the northern Gulf.

Marine conditions will improve rapidly across the basin Sat night
through Sun as Sixteen accelerates off to the NE and eventually
into the W Atlc waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above.

A large mid-upper level high along with subsidence covers much of
the central and northern Caribbean. Precipitation is enhanced over
the Lesser Antilles in association with a tropical wave and in the
SW Caribbean near the other tropical wave along 80W. Scattered
showers and tstorms are present over Haiti moving offshore from
17N-18N between 72W-74W.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the basin
through the upcoming weekend, with fresh SE winds likely across NW
portions Fri through Sat as Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen
moves NE across the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave across the
Lesser Antilles this evening will be accompanied by very active
weather as it moves W across the eastern Caribbean tonight through
Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N67W to 27N78W north of
the Bahamas. It continues W as a stationary front along 27N just
N of Lake Okeechobee to Venice Florida. Scattered showers and
tstorms are seen about 180 nm SE of the front from 28N-21N between
60W-64W. Isolated showers and tstorms are near southeast Florida
from 25N-27N between 78W-81W and in the Florida Straits. A pre
frontal trough is from 27N64W to 32N63W. A second trough is seen
further east near 26N56W to 30N55W. No significant convection is
seen near this trough at this time. A 1016 mb surface high between
these two troughs is producing calm weather near 26N61W. An
upper-level trough extends northeastward from the NE Caribbean to
25N57W to 31N45W. Cloudiness along with scattered showers and
isolated tstorms is within 150 nm either side of a line that
extends from 22N52W to 31N48W. In the eastern Atlantic, a surface
trough extends from 16N30W to 22N31W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is near the northern end of this trough from
22N-26N between 25W-29W. An E-W high pressure ridge extends along
30/32N between 15W-38W.

The cold front across the NW waters will move eastward into the
central Atlantic through early Fri, then stall and become ill
defined east of Florida on Fri. Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen
in the SW Gulf of Mexico will move NE across the SE U.S. this
weekend, and produce strong to near gale force southerly winds
ahead of it across NW Atlc waters Fri night through Sun night.
Weak high pressure will prevail across the area Mon and Tue.

$$
MMTorres
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