[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is about 80 nm to the NE of the
Mexico's coast near 20N96.5W. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant.
Scattered to numerous strong in clusters also covers the waters
and inland areas from 90 nm to the N of the Yucatan Peninsula,
to the NW coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, to inland
areas of the eastern Isthmus of Tehuantepec and the NW part of
Guatemala. The precipitation pattern become a little better
organized during the past several hours. Recent satellite wind
data also indicate that the system is producing winds to near
tropical storm force. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for additional development. It is likely that a
tropical storm or a subtropical storm will form later today or
tonight, while the system moves generally northeastward in the
western Gulf of Mexico.  The low pressure center is forecast to
approach the northern or northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast on
Friday or Saturday. It is likely that the weather feature will
produce gusty winds and rough surf in those areas. Heavy
rainfall is also possible across parts of the southeast U.S.A.
late this week and this weekend.  Interests along the northern
and northeastern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this
system. Please, read bulletins and forecasts, that are issued by
the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of the National
Hurricane Center, for more information about marine hazards
while the low pressure center moves across the Gulf of Mexico
during the next couple of days. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon, if necessary. The chance of more development of
this weather feature, into a tropical cyclone or into a
subtropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is high.
The area of interest is in the western or central Gulf of
Mexico, while the system is moving generally northeastward.
It is possible that this system may produce gusty winds,
rainfall, and rough surf along sections of the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast on Friday and Saturday. This low pressure system is
forecast to produce strong to near-gale force winds, from late
Thursday through early Saturday, in sections of the central and
northeastern Gulf of Mexico, with a possibility of reaching gale
force by Friday evening. Please read the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC or
see the website hurricanes.gov for more details. Please read the
HIGH SEAS FORECAST, also, MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR SOUTHERN MEXICO...

A broad area of low pressure, that is inland in the Mexican
states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, will spread heavy rainfall to
parts of those Mexican states, and the states of Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, through Thursday. It is possible
that these rains may cause flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas. Please monitor bulletins and forecasts from
your local or national meteorological service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W, from 11N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: ITCZ-related
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm on either
side of the tropical wave, from 01N to 05N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/58W, from 22N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm to the E of the
trough, from 12N to 22N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 19N
southward, moving W 15 knots. The wave is moving through the
area of an upper level inverted trough that is in the SW corner
of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate in
clusters in Venezuela and Colombia, including in the coastal
waters of the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 06N to 11N
between 71W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
and The Gambia, near 13N17W, to 12N20W, to 16N25W near the Cabo
Verde Islands, to 09N27W, and 06N33W. The ITCZ is along 05N36W
04N51W, in Brazil near the border with French Guiana.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N to
09N between 18W and 27W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 180 nm to the N of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ between
25W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front cuts across NE Florida, into the N central Gulf of
Mexico, to the coast of Mexico along 98W near 23N/24N.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either
side of the cold front.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico.

The current cold front will extend from N central Florida to
near 27N90W to Tampico, Mexico later this morning. The 1008 mb
low pressure center that is near 21N95.5W will allow strong N
winds to spill southward across the Mexican coastal waters. The
front will meander across the N Gulf of Mexico through Friday,
before becoming diffuse, while the low moves slowly NE and
becomes better organized. Strong to near gale force winds will
surround the low pressure center on Friday. Gale-force winds are
expected across E sections of the low pressure center on Friday
night and Saturday. This low pressure center has a medium chance
of developing into a tropical cyclone or a subtropical cyclone
late this week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 20N61W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 17N67W in the Caribbean Sea, to 14N75W, to 12N80W,
into central sections of Nicaragua. Little to no deep convective
precipitation is related directly to this upper level trough.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean
Sea to the west of the 20N61W-to-17N67W-to-12N80W trough.

Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected across the
basin through the weekend. Expect fresh southerly winds across
NW sections from Friday through Saturday, as low pressure
deepens across the Gulf of Mexico. A 57W tropical wave will move
across the Lesser Antilles later this morning, across the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday, and into the central basin on
Saturday. Expect very active weather with the tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N78W beyond NE Florida.
Precipitation: isolated moderate within 240 nm of the front to
the E and SE, from 27N northward.

An upper level trough passes through 32N52W, to 24N59W, 20N61W,
to 17N67W in the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 30N63W
27N60W 24N59W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 23N northward between 47W and 58W.

Weak high pressure will prevail across the waters during the
overnight hours. The current Gulf of Mexico cold front will
enter the NW forecast waters on Thursday morning. Fresh to
strong SW winds ahead of the front and N of 29N will continue
through Thursday morning, when the front is expected to reach
from 30N73W SW to near Palm Bay, Florida. The front will reach
from 30N65W to Freeport, Bahamas to near West Palm Beach on
Friday morning, and from 25N65W to the central Bahamas on
Saturday. Low pressure will move from the NE Gulf of Mexico
across the SE U.S.A., from Saturday through Sunday, in order to
produce strong southerly winds across the NW Atlantic waters.

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net