[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad 1009 mb low is centered in the southwest Gulf of Mexico
near 20N95W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong
convection is from 19N-27N between 88W-98W, enhanced by strong
upper-level divergence. Gradual development is possible, and there
is a medium chance of tropical or subtropical cyclone formation
within the next 48 hours over the western or central Gulf of
Mexico while the system is moving generally northeastward.
Regardless of development, this system could produce gusty winds,
rainfall, and rough surf along portions of the northern Gulf
Coast Friday and Saturday. This low pressure system is forecast to
produce strong to near-gale force winds late Thursday through
early Saturday over portions of the central and northeastern Gulf
of Mexico, with a possibility of reaching gale force by Friday
evening. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC or see the website
hurricanes.gov for more details.

A Heavy Rainfall Event for Southern Mexico: A broad area of low
pressure located inland over the Mexican states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero will spread heavy rainfall over portions of those Mexican
states as well as Michoacan, Colima, Jalasco and Nayarit through
Thursday. These rains could cause flooding and mudslides,
especially in mountainous areas. Please monitor products from your
local or national meteorological service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 11N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along and
within 300 nm E of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W from 20N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-22N
between 52W-58W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 20N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Little convection is noted, except for
scattered moderate convection over N Colombia where the wave meets
the East Pacific monsoon trough and over the waters of the
southern Caribbean south of 12N near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of The Gambia near
13N17W to 14N21W to a 1011 mb low near 17N25W to 09N26W to 05N32W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N36W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate
rainshowers are seen north of the ITCZ from 05N-10N between 44W-
52W. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of Africa
south of the monsoon trough, from 07N-12N between 12W-16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 16/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from Tallahassee Florida
to 28N90W, then continues as a stationary front to 28N94W to
26N96W, then resumes as a cold front to 24N99W. A pre-frontal
trough extends from 28N85W to 24N93W. A broad 1009 mb low is in
the SW Gulf near 20N95W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated
strong convection is from 19N-27N between 88W-98W, enhanced by
strong upper-level divergence. A large mid-upper level high
centered near the western tip of Cuba extends over the SE Gulf.

The tail of the front will transition to a warm front over the NE
waters on Fri ahead of the low pressure as it begins to move NE
from the Bay of Campeche. See section above for details on the
low.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-upper level ridging, subsidence and dry air cover much of the
northern and western Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers over the
southeastern and southern Caribbean are more enhanced near the
tropical waves, currently along 57W and 74W. Isolated moderate
convection is over N Colombia and Panama. The ASCAT pass from late
Wednesday morning shows moderate trades across the central
Caribbean.

Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected across the
basin through the weekend. The tropical wave along 57W will move
across the Lesser Antilles Thu morning, across the eastern
Caribbean on Fri and the central basin on Sat. Showers and tstms
associated with the wave will affect the eastern Caribbean Thu
through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gale force winds are occurring north of 32N within a few hundred
nm of the Carolina coast due to a rapidly developing low pressure
system near the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast. Strong SW winds are north
of 30N between 74W-78W. Winds north of 29N and west of 70W will
diminish on Thursday morning. Currently, scattered moderate
convection is north of 28N between 73W-78W. A weak 1015 mb surface
high is near 28N68W. A N-S surface trough extends along 60W from
21N-30N. A sharp mid-upper level trough is near the same area. To
the east of the upper-trough, upper level divergence is enhancing
scattered moderate convection from 24N-32N between 49W-59W. A
1024 mb high near 31N37W extends surface ridging across the
eastern Atlantic.

A cold front will enter the NW forecast waters Thu morning. Fresh
to strong SW winds ahead of the front and N of 29N will continue
through Thu morning when the front is expected to reach from
30N73W SW to near Palm Bay, Florida. The front will reach from
30N65W to Freeport, Bahamas to near West Palm Beach on Fri morning
and from 25N65W to the central Bahamas on Sat.

$$
Hagen
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