[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Tropical Depression Fifteen...

The center of Tropical Depression Fifteen, at 16/0300 UTC, is
near 16.8N 23.7W. This position also is about 50 nm/95 km to the
NNE of The Cabo Verde Islands. The Tropical Depression is moving
WNW, or 300 degrees, 09 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30
knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 270 nm of the center in
the NE semicircle. Possible hazards that may affect land: The
depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 inch to 3 inches, across the eastern and northern Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday. It is possible that this
rainfall may cause flash flooding and mudslides. It is possible
that tropical storm-force wind gusts may occur in the eastern
Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday, especially in areas of
high terrain. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for T.D. FIFTEEN are
available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for T.D. FIFTEEN are
available via the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT5.

...Heavy rainfall event for Central America...

A trough of low pressure that is in southern Mexico is producing
disorganized rainshowers and thunderstorms in southeastern
Mexico, in Guatemala, and in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. This area of weather, and another tropical system that
is in the eastern Pacific Ocean, are expected to produce heavy
rains in parts of southern Mexico and Central America during the
next couple of days. It is possible the rain may cause flooding
and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. The area of low
pressure is forecast to move into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, and turn northward gradually, by late Wednesday.
Some gradual development is possible, after the disturbance
moves over water. It is possible that a tropical cyclone or a
subtropical cyclone may form later this week, in the western
Gulf of Mexico. Please, read the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W, from 10N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate from 10N southward between 30W and 34W. Monsoon trough-
related widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N
southward between 20W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/55W, from 17N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 11N to 18N between 48W and
57W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 21N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Upper level SW wind flow is
cutting across the area of the tropical wave. Precipitation:
isolated moderate in the Gulf of Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland, in Africa. The ITCZ is along
05N33W 05N44W 08N52W. Precipitation: isolated moderate within
180 nm N of the ITCZ, and within 90 nm S of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the coastal waters of South
Carolina and Georgia, to the Florida Panhandle. The front
becomes a warm front from the Florida Panhandle, to northern
Louisiana. Isolated moderate to locally strong in the coastal
plains and interior sections of Florida from 82W westward and
northwestward, and off the coast of SE Louisiana. Isolated
moderate within 180 nm to the west of NW Cuba.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
along 23N91W 20N93W 17N94W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong from 23N southward between 90W and 96W.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico.

Broad low pressure in the Yucatan Peninsula, in the SW Gulf of
Mexico and in southern Mexico, gradually will shift NW through
late Thursday. Expect squalls and thunderstorms to the SW Gulf
of Mexico. Gentle to moderate return flow will prevail across
the basin through tonight, ahead of the next cold front, that is
expected to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning.
The front will extend from 28N82W to 27N90W to Tampico, Mexico
by Thursday morning. The front will extend from 26N82W to 26N86W
by Friday, where it will transition to a warm front as low
pressure develops near 25N94W. The low pressure center is
expected to move NE toward the mouth of the Mississippi River,
from Friday through Saturday, with strong to near gale force
winds across E and NE parts of the low pressure center. Very
active weather is expected across the basin with this front and
low pressure system.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the heavy rainfall event, that currently is occurring in Central
America and the southwest Caribbean Sea.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean
Sea to the west of the line that runs from the easternmost part
of Hispaniola to the western sections of Panama.

An upper level trough passes through 22N65W in the Atlantic
Ocean, through the Mona Passage, to 14N73W in the central
Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 13N southward from 74W
westward, with an upper level inverted trough. The monsoon
trough passes through northern sections of Colombia, and across
Panama and northern parts of Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated
moderate from 10N southward from 80W westward.

Broad low pressure, across Central America and the southern Gulf
of Mexico, will yield moderate to fresh SE winds in the NW
Caribbean Sea throughout the week. Moderate to locally fresh
trade winds are expected elsewhere across the rest of the basin
through the period. An active tropical wave will move across the
tropical Atlantic waters tonight and Wednesday, across the
Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and the eastern Caribbean Sea
on Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is near 32N61W, to 26N62W, to 22N65W,
beyond the Mona Passage, and into the Caribbean Sea. A surface
trough is along 31N61W 25N66W 20N67W. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 20N
northward between 50W and 62W.

Weak high pressure will prevail across the area W of 65W through
early Thursday. A cold front is expected to enter the NW
forecast waters on Thursday morning. Fresh to near gale force SW
winds are expected across the NW waters N of 29N ahead of the
front, from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The cold front
will reach from near Bermuda to just N of Freeport, Bahamas to
the east coast of Florida near 26N80W early on Thursday night,
and move east of the area by Saturday.

$$

mt
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