[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Tropical Depression Fifteen...

Tropical Depression Fifteen is centered near 16.8N 22.9W at
15/2100 UTC or 80 nm NE of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 9
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 15N-20N between 17W-22W. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression will move across the
island of Sal this evening and over or near the northern Cabo
Verde Islands tonight and early Wednesday morning. Little change
in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Weakening is
expected to begin on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to
become a remnant low by Wednesday night or Thursday. See the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...Heavy rainfall event for Central America...

A trough of low pressure located over southern Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over southeastern Mexico,
Guatemala, and the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance and another
tropical system over the eastern Pacific are expected to produce
heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico and Central America
during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and
mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. By late Wednesday, the
disturbance is forecast to move over the Bay of Campeche and
gradually turn northward. Some gradual development is possible
after the disturbance moves over water and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone could form later this week over the western
Gulf of Mexico. See the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis along 30W
from 10N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is well
depicted in model guidance. Scattered showers are from 01N-08N
between 20W- 28W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic with axis along 54W from
18N southward, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in
satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-17N
between 50W-55W.

A tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean with axis
along 68W from 20N southward, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is
well depicted in model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the part of the wave that remains over land,
affecting western Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends west of a tropical wave from 04N32W to 09N48W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered
showers are noted along the whole ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends over the Florida Panhandle from 31N83W
to beyond 31N88W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
front. Further south, a surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche
21N93W to 18N92W. Scattered moderate convection is south of 22N
between 90W-96W. Strong subsidence covers most of the Gulf
supporting fair weather. Scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle easterly winds across the basin.

Gentle to moderate return flow will prevail across
the basin through tonight, ahead of the next cold front expected
to enter the NW gulf Wed morning. The front will extend from
28N82W to near 27N90W to near Tampico, Mexico by Thu morning.
By Fri the front will extend from near 26N82W to 26N86W, where
it will transition to a warm front as low pressure develops near
27N91W. A stationary front and a surface trough will extend from
the low SW towards the Bay of Campeche. Very active weather is
expected across the basin with this frontal system.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information about
the heavy rainfall event currently occurring over Central America
and the southwest Caribbean, and the tropical wave over the
central Caribbean.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin. Scattered showers are over the SW Caribbean south of 10N
and west of 75W due to the proximity of the monsoon trough.

Broad low pressure across Central America and the
southern Gulf of Mexico will yield moderate to fresh SE winds
across the NW Caribbean throughout the week. Otherwise, moderate
to locally fresh tradewinds are expected across the rest of the basin
through the period. An active tropical wave will move across the
tropical Atlantic waters tonight and Wed, across the Lesser
Antilles Thu, and the eastern Caribbean Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
T.D. Fifteen, and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A 1018 mb high is over the west Atlantic near 31N73W. To the
east, a surface trough extends from 32N62W to 25N62W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm to the east of the trough.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 32N37W.

Weak high pressure will prevail across the area W of
65W through early Thu. A cold front is expected to enter the NW
forecast waters Thu morning. Fresh to near gale force SW winds
are expected across the NW waters N of 29N ahead of the front Wed
through Thu morning. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda
to just N of Freeport, Bahamas to the east coast of Florida near
26N80W early Thu night, and move east of the area by Sat.

$$

ERA
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