[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 39.9N 58.8W at 13/2100
UTC, or 350 nm SE of Halifax Nova Scotia, moving ENE at 16 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 39N to 42N between 55W-59W. An increase in
forward speed and a turn toward the east are expected on Monday,
with that motion continuing into Wednesday. Gradual weakening is
expected, and Melissa is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low by tonight or early Monday. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
for more details.

...Heavy rainfall event for Central America...

A 1010 mb surface low is centered over the SW Caribbean just east
of Nicaragua. This broad area of low pressure continues to
support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms S of 20N W of
75W. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward toward
Central America, and some development is possible if the low
remains over water when it is near the coasts of Honduras,
Guatemala, and Belize on Monday and Tuesday. Regardless of
development, this system could bring heavy rains to portions of
Central America during the next few days. See the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC for more details.

...Tropical wave over Africa...

A vigorous tropical wave, accompanied by a low pressure system,
has emerged over the far eastern tropical Atlantic just west of
the coast of Guinea-Bissau. Showers and thunderstorms are
beginning to show signs of organization, and environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of a
tropical depression during the next few days while the disturbance
moves west-northwestward to northwestward over or just east of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent
any significant development by midweek. Interests in and around
the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
This system has a medium chance for tropical development through
the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 05N-15N
along 43W, moving W at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low is analyzed within
this wave centered near 10N43W. The wave is well depicted in model
guidance. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N between
40W-49W.

A tropical wave analyzed with axis along 56W from 05N-18N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. This wave is also depicted in model guidance. Scattered
showers are noted across the southern half of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N18W to 08N38W. The ITCZ is from
10N46W to 07N55W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves, scattered showers are noted within 90 nm north of
the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1014 mb low is centered over the NW Gulf near 27N97W. A
stationary front extends from the low eastward to 30N87W.
Southward from the low, a weakening stationary front extends to
18N96W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle easterly winds
across most of the basin.

The front E of the low will move N of the Gulf as a warm front by
Mon night. Winds and seas should be quiescent for the next few
days over the Gulf. On Wed, a weak cold front will reach the NW
Gulf and move to the east with little wind or wave impacts. On
Thu, a trough may move across Central America and reach the SW
Gulf. This system currently has a low chance of becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 5 days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for the heavy
rainfall event currently occurring over Central America and the W
Caribbean.

Fair weather prevails across the eastern half of the basin mainly
east of 75W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades
across the basin.

The broad low pressure over the SW Caribbean will slowly move WNW
across Central America during the next few days. Fresh to strong
E to SE winds are likely mainly over the NW part of the Caribbean
between the Yucatan Peninsula and Honduras late Mon into Tue as a
surface trough forms on the E side of the low in that general
area. Showers and thunderstorms will continue over much of the
western Caribbean through late Tue. The low pressure system has a
low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 5
days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Melissa and the tropical waves moving across the
basin.

A surface trough extends across the west-central Atlantic from
near 32N60W to 25N65W to 23N74W. Farther east, a surface trough
extending from 26N57W to 22N60W is generating scattered moderate
convection from 18N-23N between 50W-61W. In the eastern Atlantic,
a cold front extends from 30N14W to 26N33W, then becomes
stationary from that point to 31N45W. There is no deep convection
associated with this front at this time.

The Bermuda high will maintain relatively quiet conditions
through Tue. Beginning Wed morning, moderate to strong SW winds
will develop east of northern Florida ahead the the next cold
front. The cold front will reach the waters E of northern Florida
Thu morning, then will extend from about 31N67W to southern
Florida by Thu night. N winds behind the cold front will only
moderate to fresh speeds. Seas should generally remain below 8 ft
for the next several days over the area. No tropical cyclone
activity is expected during the next several days as well.

$$

ERA
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