[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 39.8N 60.9W at 13/1500
UTC, or 310 nm SSE of Halifax Nova Scotia, moving ENE at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 39N to 42N between 57W and 61W. An increase
in forward speed and a turn toward the east are expected on
Monday, with that motion continuing into Wednesday. Gradual
weakening is expected, and Melissa is forecast to become a post-
tropical remnant low by tonight or early Monday. See the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34
KNHC for more details.

...Heavy rainfall event for Central America...

A 1009 mb surface low is centered over the SW Caribbean just
east of Nicaragua. This broad area of low pressure continues to
support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms S of 20N W of
71W. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward toward
Central America, and some development is possible if the low
remains over water when it is near the coasts of Honduras,
Guatemala, and Belize on Monday and Tuesday.  Regardless of
development, this system could bring heavy rains to portions of
Central America during the next few days. See the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is from 04N to 19N with axis along 16W. The wave
is accompanied by a broad area of low pressure that is producing
a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms over portions
of western Africa and from 08N to 15N  of 20W.  The wave is
expected to move west-northwestward over the next day or so and
emerge off the coast of Africa later this afternoon.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
additional development to occur during the next few days while
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward toward the
Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Strong upper-level
winds should prevent additional development by midweek.
Interests in and around the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc from 04N to 15N with axis
along 42W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 10N to 14N between 40W and 47W.

A tropical wave is from 06N to 18N with axis near 55W, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N
between 50W and 62W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N17W to 06N25W to 08N34W to
08N45W. For information about convection see the tropical waves
section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1013 mb low is centered near 26N94W in the NW Gulf of
Mexico. A warm front extends from the low eastward to 28N93W,
where the front becomes stationary to 30N88W. Southward from the
low, a stationary front extends to 19N96W. The warm front along
the N Gulf will continue moving northward and will retreat back
over the SE United States by Mon. The stationary front in the W
Gulf should dissipate by Mon. Winds and seas should be quiescent
for the next few days over the Gulf. On Wed, a weak cold front
will reach the NW Gulf and move to the east with little wind or
wave impacts. On Thu, a trough may move across Central America
and reach the SW Gulf. This system has a low chance currently of
becoming a tropical cyclone.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the special features section above for the heavy
rainfall event currently occurring over Central America and the
SW Caribbean.

Broad low pressure over the southwest Caribbean will slowly move
west-northwestward toward Central America during the next few
days. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are likely mainly
over the northwest part of the Caribbean between the Yucatan
Peninsula and Honduras late Mon into Tue as a surface trough is
likely to form in that general area. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will continue over much of the western
Caribbean through late Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the special features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Melissa and tropical waves.

A weakening stationary front extends from near 30N61W
southwestward to 25N64W to 22N73W. The front will gradually
dissipate through Mon. Weak high pressure north of the front
will maintain relatively quiet conditions through Tue. Farther
east a surface trough extending from 28N58W to 20N64W generates
scattered showers and tstms from 19N to 25N between 46W and 64W.
In the eastern Atlc, a cold front extends from 30N17W to 26N28W
to 27N40W to 30N44W. There is no deep convection associated with
this front that is expected to dissipate on Mon.

On Wed, moderate to strong southwest winds will develop east of
Florida ahead of the next cold front. This front will move off
the southeastern U.S. coast on Wed, and reach from near 31N72W
to inland Florida near Cape Canaveral early Thu, and from near
31N68W to 28N71W and to inland Florida near West Palm Beach by
late Thu night. Seas east of the Bahamas will subside to less
than 8 ft later this afternoon as the large north swell produced
by Tropical Storm Melissa well north of the area decays.

$$
Ramos
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