[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W, from 21N southward,
moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
15N-18N between 19W-23W. Isolated moderate convection is from
03N-10N between 22W-28W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W from 07N-24N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from
21N-26N between 41W-45W. Isolated moderate convection elsewhere
within 240 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, from 21N southward,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 11N-17N between 80W-84W. Another area of scattered moderate
to strong convection extends over NW Venezuela, N Colombia, and
the south-central Caribbean from 05N-15N between 71W-79W.

A western Caribbean Sea/Central America tropical wave is along
88W, from 05N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. Isolated showers are
near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W to 13N20W to
08N23W to 07N34W. The ITCZ extends from 07N34W to 09N41W, then
continues W of a tropical wave from 09N45W to 08N59W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02N-08N between 26W-34W. Isolated
showers are N of the ITCZ from 08N-12N between 53W-60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Dry air covers the Gulf of Mexico to the northwest of a line from
Sarasota Florida to 21N89W to Veracruz Mexico. A stationary front
extends from Stuart Florida to Port Charlotte to 26N84W. A surface
trough extends from 26N86W to 22N90W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are southeast of a line from Naples Florida to
21N90W to 20N97W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh SE winds along
the Texas coast and fresh E winds in the NE Gulf, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere.

High pressure centered over the southeastern U.S. will contribute
to moderate to fresh northeast to east winds E of 90W and N of
26N this morning. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri
afternoon, then reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to
Veracruz Sat afternoon. By Sun, the front will become stationary
from the FL Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Behind this front,
strong to near gale force northerly winds can be expected,
especially Sat and Sat night. Near gale force northerly winds may
persist offshore Veracruz into Sun, before winds diminish across
the entire area Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are in the W Caribbean. See section above for
details.

TPW imagery shows abundant moisture over the southern Caribbean
and northern South America. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N-13N between 60W-67W, which includes portions of Venezuela and
waters to the east of the ABC Islands. Another area of scattered
moderate to strong convection extends over NW Venezuela, N
Colombia, and the south-central Caribbean from 05N-15N between
71W-79W. The convection is being enhanced by large scale upper-
level divergence in the area and by the tropical wave along 80W.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Venezuela
and Colombia through the end of the week. The latest ASCAT pass
shows fresh trades over the Caribbean Sea between 64W-77W and
south of 17N.

A tropical wave with axis near 80W will move slowly through the
western Caribbean through early Fri, then move inland over Central
America. Behind this wave, fresh to strong trades along with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected
across the Central Caribbean through tonight. Long period north to
northeast swell propagating through the central Atlantic will
gradually decay across the area Atlantic waters and Caribbean
passages through Fri night. Broad low pres may develop across the
SW Caribbean this weekend and persist into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 10/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N69W to near Ft.
Lauderdale Florida. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms cover
the area inside a box with points 23N81 32N65W 32N78W 24N84W
23N81W, which includes portions of SE Florida and the NW Bahamas.
Fresh N to NE winds are occurring east of northern Florida.

A 1010 mb low is near 32N52W. A dissipating stationary front
associated with this system extends from 31N46W to 25N47W to
22N51W to 22N62W. A broad mid-upper level low is also in this
area. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N-32N between 41W-
53W. Surface ridging prevails over the eastern Atlantic to the E
of 40W, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near the Azores.

The front that extends from near 31N69W to Ft. Lauderdale Florida
will move east as a cold front today, and by tonight should be
located from around 31N66W to 27N70W to 26N75W. Fri into Saturday,
the front will slow down and again become nearly stationary from
near 28N65W to 25N70W. High pressure will build from the
southeastern U.S. behind the front, with the resultant gradient
leading to fresh northeast winds to the northwest of the front.
Low pressure will deepen off of the Mid-Atlantic coast through
Fri and generate large northwest to north swell over much of the
western Atlantic. This swell will slowly subside through Mon
night.

$$
Hagen
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