[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
124 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W, from 20N southward,
moving W around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 120
nm of the wave axis from 12N-18N. Another area of isolated to
scattered moderate convection from 03N-10N between 22W-29W is
likely more due to the monsoon trough rather than the tropical
wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 06N-21N, moving
W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 17N-22N between 37W-42W. Isolated moderate convection is
along and just W of the wave axis from 10N-14N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78/79W, from 21N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-
21N between 77W-83W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection extends over NW Venezuela, N Colombia and the south-
central Caribbean from 07N-14N between 71W-77W.

A western Caribbean Sea/Central America tropical wave is along
86W, from 04N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W to 08N24W to
07N33W. The ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 08N39W, then continues W
of a tropical wave from 09N42W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N-10N between 22W-29W. Isolated moderate
convection is N of the ITCZ from 08N-12N between 54W-60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Dry air covers the Gulf of Mexico to the northwest of a line from
the Big Bend of Florida near 30N84W to Tuxpan Mexico near 21N97W.
A stationary front extends from central Florida near 27N82W to
26N86W. A surface trough extends from 26N86W to 22N90W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are over the southern half of the
Florida peninsula and the SE Gulf mainly to the southeast of a
line from 29N83W to 26N86W to 20N93W to 20N97W. The latest ASCAT
pass shows fresh NE to E winds to the north of the stationary
front over the NE Gulf. Moderate winds prevail across most of the
remainder of the Gulf.

Moderate to fresh northeast winds can be expected northwest of
the frontal boundary and E of 90W through today as high pressure
remains over the southeastern U.S. A strong cold front will move
into the NW Gulf Fri afternoon, then reach from the mouth of the
Mississippi River to Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon where it will
become stationary. Behind this front, strong to near gale force
northerly winds can be expected, especially Sat and Sat night.
Near gale force northerly winds may persist offshore Veracruz into
Sun, before winds diminish across the entire area Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are in the W Caribbean. See section above for
details.

TPW imagery shows abundant moisture over the southern Caribbean
and northern South America. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection stretches from central Venezuela to just southeast of
the ABC Islands. Another area of scattered to numerous moderate
to strong convection extends over NW Venezuela, N Colombia and the
south-central Caribbean from 07N-14N between 71W-77W. The
convection is being enhanced by large scale upper-level divergence
in the area and by the tropical wave along 79W. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible across portions of Venezuela and Colombia
through the end of the week. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh
trades over the Caribbean Sea between 64W-77W and south of 17N.

A tropical wave with axis near 79W will move across the western
Caribbean today, then slow down and reach Central America tonight.
Behind this wave, fresh to strong trades along with scattered to
numerous showers and tstorms can be expected across the Central
Caribbean through today. Long period north to northeast swell
propagating through the central Atlantic will gradually decay
across the area Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through Fri
night. Broad low pres may develop across the SW Caribbean on Sun
and persist into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level ridge axis extends from central Cuba to 25N70W to
Bermuda. A stationary front extends from 32N76W to 29N78W to the
central Florida peninsula near 27N81W. Fresh to strong NE winds
are north of the stationary front. A surface trough extends from
32N69W through the NW Bahamas to 25N79W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms cover the area to the northwest of a line from
23N80W to 31N66W, extending to the coasts of Florida and Georgia.

An occluded low with a surface pressure of 1010 mb is centered
over the central Atlantic near 32N51W. A stationary front
associated with this system extends from 32N42W to 28N43W to
22N49W to 21N55W to 23N62W. Scattered moderate convection is from
21N-32N between 41W-52W. Surface ridging prevails over the eastern
Atlantic to the E of 40W, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near
the Azores.

The front that extends from 32N76W to near Stuart Florida will
begin to move southeastward as a cold front early this morning and
reach from near 30N65W to 27N69W to 27N80W this evening. The
northern part of the front will continue eastward as a cold front
across the northeast section of the area Fri through Sat night,
while the rest of the front becomes stationary from near 27N65W to
the central Bahamas and to along the northern coast of Cuba
through Sun. It will begin to dissipate late Sun through early
next week. High pressure will build from the southeastern U.S.
behind the front, with the resultant gradient leading to fresh
northeast winds to the northwest of the front. Low pressure will
deepen off of the Mid-Atlantic coast through Fri and generate
large northwest to north swell over much of the western Atlantic.
This swell will slowly subside through Mon night.

$$
Hagen
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