[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081114
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
714 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An occluded 1010 mb low pressure system is centered near 31N44.5W.
An occluded front extends from the low to 33N44W to a triple point
near 33N43W. A cold front extends from the triple point to 29N43W
to 24N48W to 23N52W to 24N58W. A stationary front extends eastward
from the triple point to 34N31W. There are no gales occurring south
of 31N in the southern semicircle. However, gales to 35 kt are
occurring in portions of the northern semicircle north of 31N.
Scattered moderate convection is north of 30N between 38W-46W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive
for the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next day or two, and this system has a
medium chance of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours while it moves slowly westward. Upper-level
winds are expected to become unfavorable for further development
by Wednesday evening. As the low moves W during the next 48 hours,
expect any gales to be confined to areas north of 31N in the
northern semicircle. Please see the High Seas Forecast product
under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 15W from 19N southward
along the coast of Africa, moving W at 5-10 kt. This position was
shifted eastward by 2 degrees from the previous map because new
data and satellite imagery indicate the tropical wave is still
inland over West Africa. Model diagnostics indicate the wave's
location well. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen from 05N-15N between 11W-20W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 35W from
06N-20N, moving W around 10 kt. TPW imagery and model guidance
depict this wave well. Scattered showers are noted from 13N-16N
between 31W-35W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 66W from
21N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails from 10N-18N between 61W-72W, including over
the Windward Islands.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 77W from
05N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen where the wave meets the East Pacific
monsoon trough from 09N-13N between 74W-80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
the border of Senegal and Mauritania near 16N16W to 12N25W to
08N38W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to 10N62W. Aside from the
convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section,
scattered moderate convection is over the eastern Atlantic from
02N-10N between 20W-30W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated
strong convection is along and within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between
55W-62W, including the Windward Islands.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An elongated surface trough extends from Cancun Mexico to Ft.
Myers Florida. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are
seen near South Florida, the Florida Straits, western Cuba, the
Yucatan Channel and the waters north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Similar convection is seen to the west of Tampa Bay. A separate
surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 18N95W to 22N98W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen over the
Bay of Campeche from 18N-21N between 91W-97W.

As of 08/0900 UTC, a cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico
from Panama City Florida to 29N89W to the mouth of the Rio Grande
River near 26N97W to 26N101W. It continues inland as a stationary
front to 30N107W. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen over the
Gulf of Mexico along and within 30 nm ahead of the cold front
between 90W-97W. Fresh to strong NE winds are N of the cold front
and offshore of Louisiana and Texas. The cold front will continue
moving SE across the Gulf today. This front will stall over the
SE Gulf Wed and Thu. Moderate to fresh winds behind this front
will persist into Wed before diminishing. Today, NW winds off
Veracruz may reach strong speeds. Another cold front will move
into the NW Gulf Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See section above for details on two tropical waves over the
Caribbean Sea.

An elongated surface trough extends from Cancun Mexico to Ft.
Myers Florida. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen
over the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing
scattered moderate to strong convection over the western Gulf of
Honduras from 16N-18N between 86W-89W. Isolated moderate
convection is from eastern and central Cuba to the Cayman Islands
to NE Honduras. The ASCAT pass from late Monday evening shows
fresh trades across the eastern and central Caribbean from 11.5N-
18N between 60W-77W.

The tropical wave along 77W will reach Central America on Wed. The
tropical wave along 66W will move south of the Greater Antilles
Wed and Thu. Winds over the S central Caribbean will be locally
strong through Wed. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will
generally prevail across much of the region for the next several
days. Large N swell will prevail east of the Lesser Antilles today
and tonight before gradually subsiding for the latter half of the
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
system that has a medium chance of becoming a tropical or
subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section above for details on two tropical waves
currently over the tropical Atlantic.

A 1011 mb surface low is near 32N76W. A surface trough extends
from that low to a 1009 mb low near 28N80W to Ft. Myers Florida.
Strong upper-level diffluence and divergence east of Florida is
enhancing scattered moderate convection from 25N-32N between
70W-80W. Similar convection is seen from the north coast of east-
central Cuba to the Central Bahamas. The low near 28N80W may
strengthen slightly today and produce fresh to locally strong
winds before it merges into the low near 32N76W by Wed. This
system is then forecast to move northward or northeastward and
could acquire some subtropical characteristics off the east coast
of the United States in a couple of days. There is a low chance of
tropical or subtropical cyclone formation.

A cold front extends from 33N43W to 29N43W to 24N48W to 23N52W to
24N58W. The front continues as stationary to 29N68W, dissipating
to 31N72W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are
near the stationary front and cold front. North of the stationary
front, strong winds will prevail along with very rough seas and
scattered showers and tstorms today. As the front dissipates by
tonight, winds and seas will diminish as the pressure gradient
relaxes.

A new cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight and
approach the NW Bahamas on Wed. It should then stall and weaken
over the Bahamas for the latter half of the week.

$$
Hagen
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