[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
207 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning in the central Atlantic: A 1014 mb non-tropical
surface low pressure system is centered near 32N44W. A cold front
extends from the low to 25N50W to 25N56W. A stationary front
extends east-northeast from the low to beyond 34N37W. The latest
ASCAT data from 07/2348 UTC shows gale force winds north of the
low, and north of a line from 31N47W to 32N44W to 34N42W to
34N38W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 30N between
38W-46W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally
conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next day or two, and this system has a
medium chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical storm during
the next 48 hours while it moves slowly westward. Although the
gale warning for the forecast area south of 31N expires at 28/0600
UTC, gales are expected to persist north of 31N, with winds of
20-30 kt north of 30N between 46W-55W today. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecast
product, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSTAT2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 16/17W from 18N southward
along the coast of Africa, moving W at 5-10 kt. Model guidance
indicate the wave's location well near this area. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 11N-17N
between 13W-17W and from 03N-09N between 10W-20W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 34W from
17N southward, moving W around 10 kt. TPW imagery and wave model
guidance depict this wave well. Scattered showers are noted from
12N-16N between 30W-34W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 64W
from 21N southward, moving W around 15-20 kt. The wave is noted
in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate
convection prevails from 10N-17N between 55W-69W, including over
the Windward Islands.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 21N75.5W
to 14N76.5W to 06N76.5W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is seen where the wave meets the
East Pacific monsoon trough from 09N-12N between 71W-77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W to 12N24W to 12N30W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from
07N40W to 08N50W to 10N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned
above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection
is over the Atlantic from 02N-11N between 20W-30W and N of the
ITCZ from 08N-12.5N between 47W-55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An elongated surface trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula
near 19N89W northeastward to South Florida near 26N82W to 28N77W.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen over the Yucatan
Peninsula, near South Florida and over the Florida Straits.
Similar convection is noted to the west of Tampa Bay from
26.5N-28.5N between 83.5W-85W. Isolated showers are elsewhere near
the trough over the SE Gulf. This trough will lift northward
across the SE Gulf today. Some slight development is possible
today along the northeastern part of the trough when it moves off
the SE U.S. coast into the Atlantic.

A separate surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 19N94W to
22N97W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and to the SW
of the trough axis, from 18N-21.5N between 94W-97.5W. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is seen inland over SE
Mexico from 16N-19N between 90W-93W. This trough is forecast to
dissipate early this morning.

As of 08/0300 UTC, a cold front extends across the NW Gulf of
Mexico from near Mobile Alabama to near 29N91W to the coast of
Texas near 27N97W. It continues inland as a stationary front to
26N100W to 28N105W. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen over the
Gulf of Mexico within 30 nm of the cold front. The latest ASCAT
pass shows strong NE winds to the N of the cold front south of the
central and western portion of the Louisiana coast. The front will
push SE and extend from near the Florida Big Bend region to the
Bay of Campeche by this afternoon. NE winds will strengthen to
fresh speeds across the western Gulf behind the front, with
strong NW winds expected offshore of Veracruz today. The front
will weaken Wed through Thu. Another cold front will move into the
NW Gulf Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See section above for details on two tropical waves over the
Caribbean Sea.

An elongated surface trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula
near 19N89W northeastward to South Florida near 26N82W to 28N77W.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen over the Yucatan
Peninsula and Yucatan Channel. Strong upper-level divergence and
diffluence over Cuba and south of Cuba is enhancing scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection from 18N-23N between 77W-
81W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere across the NW
Caribbean north of 15.5N west of 77W. The latest ASCAT pass shows
fresh trades across the eastern and central Caribbean from
11.5N-18N between 60W-77W.

The weak tropical wave over the central Caribbean near 76W will
enter the western Caribbean late today, then reach Central
America Wed. The tropical wave along 64W will move into the
central Caribbean Wed. Winds over the S central Caribbean will be
locally strong through Wed. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades
will generally prevail across much of the region for the next
several days. Large N to NE swell will continue to augment seas
east of the Lesser Antilles today. Then, seas will subside Wed
through Fri as the swell decay.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
system producing gales near 31N over the central Atlantic that
has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next
48 hours. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details
on two tropical waves currently over the tropical Atlantic.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form today in
the vicinity of 32N74W. This system is then forecast to move
northward or northeastward and could acquire some subtropical
characteristics off the east coast of the United States in a
couple of days. Currently, an elongated surface trough extends
from the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N89W northeastward to South
Florida near 26N82W to 28N77W. Weather near the northeastern
portion of this surface trough is forecast to combine into the
developing non-tropical area of low pressure near 32N74W by
Wednesday. Strong upper-level diffluence and divergence over
Cuba, South Florida and the Bahamas is currently enhancing
scattered moderate convection from 21N-32N between 74W-80W. From
27N-32N, this convection covers the area between 71W-81W.

A cold front extends from 32N44W to 25N50W to 25N56W. The front
continues as stationary to 26N65W to 29N70W to 30N75W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen along and N of the front from 25N-32N
between 63W-68W. Isolated showers are elsewhere along and within
60 nm ahead of the stationary and cold front. The frontal system
will lift northward and dissipate this morning west of 65W. NE
swell will continue impacting the remaining waters east of the
Bahamas into Tue, then gradually decay through mid week. The
surface trough extending from the Florida Keys to near Abaco
Island will slowly lift N today. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas are expected east of the trough over the northern
waters. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast today,
approach the NW Bahamas Wed through Thu, then dissipate over the
central Bahamas Fri.

$$
Hagen
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