[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
132 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front is currently dipping south over the western and
central Atlantic from 31N49W to 27N60W to 28N77W. This cold front
is generating NE to E gale force winds north of 28N between 51W-
60W. Seas are expected to range between 12-16 ft. This gale will
end by Monday, 07/1200 UTC. As the cold front continues to move
south and east, expect another area of minimal gale force winds
and rough seas over the waters north of 29N between 65W-70W to
develop by Sunday, 06/1800 UTC as strong high pressure builds
southward and tightens the offshore pressure gradient. Seas will
range from 12-16 ft. This gale will also continue through Monday,
07/1200 UTC. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 29W S of
15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery and model guidance depict
this wave very well. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N-14N between 24W-29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 53W/54W S
of 19N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is noted in satellite
imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N-10N between 50W-60W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 68W/69W
S of 22N, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is over
the norther portion of the wave from 20N-22N between 64W-67W.
Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N16W to 09N30W to 07N37W. The ITCZ continues from 07N37W
to 09N52W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N55W and
extends to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the Tropical Wave section above, scattered
moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 02N-10N
between 09W-24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the W Gulf of Mexico from 25N92W to
18N92W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough
axis. Similar convection is along the coasts of Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama. In the upper levels, a sharp upper level
trough is over the W Gulf along 92W. Upper level diffluence E of
the trough is producing scattered moderate convection over the
central Gulf from 21N-26N between 85W-90W.

A weak low pressure trough will linger near the Yucatan Peninsula
through Mon. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf late Mon, then
extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz on Tue. NE
winds will strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds across the
western Gulf behind the front, with strong NW winds expected
offshore of Veracruz early in the week. The front will stall and
weaken over the central Gulf Wed through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See the section above
for details.

A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from 21N79W to 21N85W to
18N87W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
16N-22N between 77W-88W. Similar convection is over the SW
Caribbean S of 12N between 75W-83W.

A weak tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will move west
across the central Caribbean through tonight, then cross the
western Caribbean Mon through Tue. Another tropical wave will
reach the Lesser Antilles Mon. Expect fresh to locally strong
winds as this wave passes over the eastern and central Caribbean
through the middle of this week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
trades will prevail across much of the region for the next several
days. Northerly swell generated by a cold front north of the area
will result in building seas east of the Lesser Antilles Mon
through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two Gale Warnings are over the Atlantic waters. Refer to the
section above for details.

Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. See the
section above for details.

A cold front is over the western and central Atlantic from 31N49W
to 27N60W to 28N77W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 27N55W to
25N63W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 23N-30N
between 50W-72W. A 1025 mb high is over the E Atlantic near
37N17W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is
entered over the W Atlantic near 26N71W enhancing convection.

The cold front over the western and central Atlantic will weaken
and stall tonight, then lift northward and dissipate Mon into Tue.
Northerly swell generated by the strong winds will propagate
southward across the remaining waters east of the Bahamas through
Mon night, then gradually decay Tue through Thu. Another cold
front will move off the SE U.S. coast late Tue and approach the NW
Bahamas Wed into Thu.

$$
Formosa
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