[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061043
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
643 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front is currently dipping south over the western and
central Atlantic from 31N54W to 29N70W to 30N81W. This cold front
is generating strong to minimal gale force NE to E winds north of
30N between 51W-54W. Seas are expected to range between 12-16 ft
in this area. This gale will end by early Monday, 07/0600 UTC. As
the cold front continues to move south and east, expect another
area of strong to minimal gale force winds and rough seas over the
waters north of 29N and east of 71W to develop by Sunday, 06/1200
UTC as strong high pressure builds southward and tightens the
offshore pressure gradient. Seas will range from 12-16 ft. This
gale will continue through Monday, 07/1200 UTC. Refer to the High
Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 26W S of
15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery and model guidance depict
this wave very well. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
10N-13N between 25W-29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 52W S of
19N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is noted in satellite imagery
and model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-
16N between 48W-54W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 67W S
of 22N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the
wave axis at this time. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring in
the northern portion along the wave axis from 20N-22N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 14N16W to 11N26W to 08N36W. The ITCZ continues from
08N36W to 07N51W, then W of a tropical wave near 07N53W to 06N55W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the Tropical Wave section
above, scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 06N-
10N between 45W- 58W. There is also scattered moderate convection
along the coast of W Africa from 03N- 10N and east of 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A sharp upper level trough is pushing across the NW Gulf while an
upper level ridge dominates the eastern Gulf. At the surface, a
trough is analyzed in the southern Gulf of Mexico from 19N91W to
26N95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along this feature
from 18N-26N between 86W- 96W. Scattered showers are also moving
across Florida into the eastern Gulf waters but no deep convection
is occurring due to subsidence from the upper level ridge. There
is a surface trough in the eastern Gulf from 25N84W to 30N86W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds in
the east and central Gulf, with light winds elsewhere.

A weak trough of low pressure will linger near the Yucatan
Peninsula through Monday. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
Monday, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz by
Tuesday morning. NE winds will strengthen to moderate to fresh
speeds across the western Gulf behind the front, with strong winds
expected offshore of Veracruz early next week. The front will
stall and weaken over the central and eastern Gulf by the middle
of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See the section above
for details.

An upper level trough extends across the northern Caribbean which
is interacting with a plume of moisture south of Cuba. This is
causing a cluster moderate convection to persist across the NW
basin from 16N-22N between 78W-86W. A surface trough is analyzed
near this convective activity from 18N87W to 21N80W. The eastern
Pacific monsoon trough continues to enhance convection across the
SW Caribbean, S of 14N between 73W-76W. Upper level ridging
extends into the eastern Caribbean which is inhibiting deep
convection although showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles
westward into Puerto Rico. Latest scatterometer data depicts
moderate trades in the south- central Caribbean with light to
gentle trades across the rest of the basin.

A weak tropical wave over the Caribbean near 68W will continue
moving west through the central Caribbean through tonight, then
cross the western Caribbean Monday and Monday night. Moderate to
fresh trades will persist over the central and eastern Caribbean
into Monday. Another tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles
Monday. Expect fresh to locally strong winds as this wave passes
over the eastern and central Caribbean through the middle of next
week. Elsewhere, N swell generated by a cold front north of the
area will result in building seas east of the Lesser Antilles
Monday through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two Gale Warnings are in effect for the west Atlantic waters.
Refer to the section above for details.

Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. See the section above
for details.

A cold front over the western and central Atlantic extends from a
1011 mb low near 30N54W to 29N69W to 30N81W. A pre- frontal
trough extends from 26N68W to 29N57W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 100 nm of these features. An
upper level low is located near 26N72W with a trough reflected at
the surface from 22N78W to 28N71W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted from 21N-28N between 69W-75W. To the
east, a 1024 mb surface high is over the E Atlantic near 37N19W
with fair weather. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong ENE winds located behind the front, N of 29N between 57W-
80W.

A cold front moving through the northern waters will induce gale
conditions N of 29N between 66W and 70W into Monday morning, with
near gale force NE to E winds all areas N of 26N through Monday.
The cold front will weaken and stall Monday, then lift north and
dissipate into Tuesday. Elsewhere, northerly swell generated by
the strong winds will propagate southward across the remaining
waters east of the Bahamas through Monday night. Another cold
front will move off the SE U.S. coast late Tuesday and approach
the NW Bahamas Wednesday.

$$
AKR
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