[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale warning is in effect
near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone Agadir, through
today until 31/0000 UTC. The pressure gradient between high
pressure near the Azores and low pressure over North Africa will
lead to gale force northerly winds. Please read the latest high
seas forecast from Meteo France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22/23W from 04N-16N,
moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is W of the
wave axis from 06N-12N between 22W-29W. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become a little more conducive for development
this weekend, and there is a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 5 days as the system continues westward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 02N-20N, moving
W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are from 06N-11N between 37W-
44W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 02N-17N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 06N-10N between 48W-56W. Scattered moderate convection is
also seen from 14N-17N between 55W-58W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from 23N67W to 17N69W to
06N70W and is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 17.5N-23N between 63W-68W,
including near and north of Puerto Rico. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and portions of the
southeast Bahamas during the next few days. Over the weekend,
conditions could become marginally conducive for development when
the disturbance moves near Florida and the central and NW
Bahamas. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
during the next 5 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 10N23W to 09N43W to 07N50W to 08N54W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered showers are
seen from 07N-12N between 30W-35W and from 04N-09N between 45W-
48W. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the west
coast of Africa from 04N-11N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico
near 28N90W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds cover most of the
Gulf in the area surrounding the high. Elsewhere, moderate SE
winds are over the far west-central Gulf. Scattered showers and
tstorms are north of western Cuba and in the Yucatan Channel.
Isolated showers are observed south of Louisiana, and this is
being influenced by an upper-level trough that extends from
western North Carolina to the central Gulf of Mexico to the
southwest Gulf.

A high pres ridge centered near the northern Gulf Coast will
support gentle to moderate winds through the end of this week.
Surface troughs will develop each afternoon over the Yucatan
Peninsula and generate fresh to locally strong winds during the
overnight hours as they move W over the Bay of Campeche,
especially through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
eastern Caribbean tropical wave.

Upper-level ridging covers much of the Caribbean. Scattered
showers and tstorms are seen across the NW Caribbean from 15.5N-
23N between 77W-89W. Within this area, scattered to numerous
tstorms are from 19N-22N between 81W-86W. The East Pacific
monsoon trough is spreading convection over NW Venezuela and the
far SW Caribbean, south of 9.5N between 75W-79W. Subsidence is
over much of the central Caribbean Sea.

A pair of tropical waves crossing the Caribbean will lower wind
speeds over the basin until Thu night, then fresh to strong winds
will return to the central Caribbean in the wake of the tropical
waves. The first wave will impact Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic today, then all of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba Wednesday,
bringing fresh to possibly strong winds to the region as well as
showers and thunderstorms. Another tropical wave will quickly
follow and could bring similar conditions to Puerto Rico Wednesday
and the Dominican Republic Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale is along the coast of Morocco. See above.

Three tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above.

A small area of upper-level cyclonic flow near the NW Bahamas is
leading to scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the western
Atlantic from 23N-32N, west of 77W. The tail end of a surface
trough is over the W Atlantic from 32N73W to 30N76W. Isolated
showers are near the trough. Another area of showers is seen from
27N-30N between 66W-69W. An upper-level low near 28N60W is
inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms from 27N-32N
between 56W-64W. Farther east, another upper level low is seen
near 30N46W. A surface trough extends from 30N47W to 21N48W.
Scattered tstorms are near the upper low and northern part of the
surface trough from 25N-32N between 43W-49W. A dissipating cold
front enters the discussion area near 32N10W to 29N18W to 32N26W.
No significant precipitation is noted with this feature.

A tropical wave will bring gusty winds as well as showers and
thunderstorms to the Puerto Rico waters today. The wave will pass
near Hispaniola into the Turks and Caicos Islands Wed and Thu,
accompanied by fresh to strong winds as well as showers and
thunderstorms. This system will enter the Bahamas late Thursday
then track N just off the E coast of Florida Fri night and Sat.
Otherwise, moderate breezes will generally prevail.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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