[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300515
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale warning is in effect
near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone Agadir, through
today until 31/0000 UTC. The pressure gradient between high
pressure near the Azores and low pressure over North Africa, along
with a cold front traversing the waters near Agadir will lead to
gale force northerly winds. Please read the latest high seas
forecast from Meteo France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W from 04N-16N, moving
W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is W of the wave
axis from 06N-13N between 22W-28W. Upper-level winds are forecast
to become a little more conducive for development by the weekend,
and there is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the
next 5 days as the system continues westward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 02N-20N, moving
W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are from 05N-12N between 35W-
42W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W from 02N-17N, moving
W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 06N-10N between 45W-54W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W from 07N-22N, moving W
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N-22N
between 62W-69W, including near and north of the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico and eastern Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and
tstorms are also along the southern part of the wave south of 12N
and over Venezuela. Locally heavy rainfall is possible over Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola and portions of the southeast Bahamas during the
next few days. Over the weekend, conditions could become a little
more conducive for development when the disturbance moves near
Florida and the central and NW Bahamas. There is a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 10N22W to 09N38W to 06N50W. Besides the convection mentioned
in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is
along the W coast of Africa from 07N-14N, east of 17W, and within
90 nm of the monsoon trough between 30W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico
just off the southeast coast of Louisiana. 5-10 kt anticyclonic
winds are going around the high. Elsewhere, 15 kt SE winds are
over the far west-central Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is
inland over the Florida Peninsula and over water in between the
Florida Keys and Naples Florida. Scattered moderate convection is
also seen over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Isolated showers over
Louisiana are also possible offshore of Louisiana, and this is
being influenced by an upper-level trough that extends from
western North Carolina to the central Gulf of Mexico to Tuxpan
Mexico. However, the majority of the Gulf of Mexico is not seeing
any shower activity at this time due to subsidence.

A high pressure ridge residing near the northern Gulf Coast will
support gentle to moderate winds through the end of this week.
Surface troughs will develop each afternoon over the Yucatan
Peninsula and generate fresh to locally strong winds during the
overnight hours as they move W over the Bay of Campeche,
especially early in the week. Weak surface troughs will also
develop over the Florida Peninsula, then move W and bring showers
and thunderstorms to the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the
overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
eastern Caribbean tropical wave.

Upper-level ridging covers much of the Caribbean. Scattered
showers and tstorms are seen south of Cuba, west of Jamaica, and
north of Honduras, as well as over Honduras and the western
Yucatan Peninsula. The East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing
convection over N Colombia, with an isolated tstorm or two over
the far SW Caribbean south of 10N between 75W-78W. Subsidence is
over much of central Caribbean Sea.

A pair of tropical waves crossing the Caribbean will lower wind
speeds over the basin until Thu night, then fresh to strong winds
will return to the central Caribbean in the wake of the tropical
waves. The first wave will impact Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic today, bringing fresh to possibly strong winds to the
region as well as showers and thunderstorms. Another tropical wave
will quickly follow and could bring similar conditions to Puerto
Rico Wednesday and early Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale is along the coast of Morocco. See above.

Three tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above.

A small area of upper-level cyclonic flow near the NW Bahamas is
leading to scattered showers and tstorms over the NW Bahamas and
adjacent waters from 23N-28N, west of 77W. Isolated showers and
tstorms are north of 30N between 79W-81W. The tail end of a
surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 32N68W to 30N71W to
29N74W. Isolated showers are possible near the trough. An upper-
level low near 28N61W is inducing scattered showers and tstorms
from 27N-32N between 57W-64W. Farther east, another upper level
low is seen near 30N46W. A weak 1016 mb surface low is to the
south of that near 25N45W. Scattered tstorms are near the upper
low from 29N-32N between 44W-48W. A cold front enters the
discussion area near 32N13W to 31N17W to 31N24W to 32N25W.
Stratocumulus clouds are near and north of the front with no
significant shower activity noted.

Over the west Atlantic, a tropical wave will bring gusty winds as
well as showers and thunderstorms to the Puerto Rico waters today.
The wave will pass N of Hispaniola into the Turks and Caicos
Islands Wed and Thu, accompanied by fresh to strong winds as well
as showers and thunderstorms. This system will enter the Bahamas
Fri then track N just off the E coast of Florida Fri night and
Sat. Otherwise, moderate breezes will generally prevail.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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