[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W S of 18N, moving W
around 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance and
satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection from 01N-11N
between 28W-34W. West of 34W, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is due to the monsoon trough than the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W S of 21N, moving W
around 15 kt. This wave merge with the Lesser Antilles tropical
wave. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis south
of 12N-21N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W from 20N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate strong convection is noted
inland over Haiti, eastern Cuba and northern Colombia. Scattered
showers extend within 180 nm east and west of the wave axis S of
14N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W from 19N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near and
within 180 nm E of the wave axis, including Nicaragua and Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N16W
to 07N39W. The ITCZ extends from 07N39W, then resumes west of
07N56W. Aside from the convection and showers mentioned in the
tropical wave section above, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen 04N-08N between 34W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from a 1013 mb low near 27N91W, then
continues as a cold front from that point to 24N97W into Mexico.
Numerous moderate convection is seen north of 23N-28N, within 70
nm N and within 180 nm S of the fronts. Elsewhere, scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are noted in the Bay of Campeche, the
Yucatan Peninsula and northwest Cuba. A small upper-level low is
over the Bay of Campeche, enhancing scattered showers and tstorms
south of 19N between 91W-92W.

A frontal system extends over the northern Gulf of Mexico connected
to a 1013 mb low centered near 27N91W. Moderate to fresh NE winds
are expected northwest of the front through Thu. Moderate to fresh
SW to W winds will be ahead of the front, briefly increasing to
strong Thu afternoon and evening. A surface trough will develop
over NE Mexico adjacent waters on Thu, prevailing in the region
before moving inland Fri morning. Otherwise, each night a surface
trough will form and move off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay
of Campeche accompanied with fresh to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above
for details.

An upper-level trough axis extends SW from an upper-level low
near 26N71W to Haiti. Scattered moderate convection prevails in
the NW Caribbean from 18N to the eastern coast of Cuba. Scattered
moderate convection is being enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon
trough in the SW Caribbean south of 11N. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with an area of strong
trades in the Central Caribbean between 72W-76W.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend,
pulsing to near gale force at night along the coast of Colombia
and over the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong winds will expand northward
towards Hispaniola adjacent waters and the Windward Passage on
Thu as high pressure strengthens and a tropical wave moves across
the central basin. Winds in the northern-central basin will
diminish on Sat as the wave moves over the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N77W and extends SW
to the Florida coast near 29N81W. Numerous moderate convection is
seen across the western Atlantic from the northern Bahamas to 31N
and west of 67W. An upper- level low near 26N71W is helping to
induce scattered showers and tstorms just to the northern Bahamas.
A little farther E, a surface trough from 30N52W to 27N56W is
producing isolated showers near and just W of the trough axis.
High pressure ridging covers the remainder of basin, anchored by a
1025 mb high near 34N49W.

A weak cold front will move into the NW waters this evening and
stall tonight N of the Bahamas before dissipating on Thu. The
pressure gradient between the frontal boundary and high pressure
to the east will support moderate to fresh S to SW winds N of 27N
through Thu. Gentle to moderate SE winds will dominate the
remainder waters, except N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the
Windward Passage where fresh to strong winds will pulse at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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