[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29/30W S of 19N, moving
W around 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance and
satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection from 06N-09N
between 25W-29W is being caused by the wave and a 1012 mb surface
low near 09N26W. Scattered moderate convection from 05N-08N
between 32W-37W may be more due to the monsoon trough than the
wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W S of 18N, moving W
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N
between 49W-53W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of
the wave axis south of 13N.

A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles extends from
26N54W to 17N58W to 05N59W and is moving W around 15 kt. This
wave is embedded within Saharan dust north of 10N, but the dust is
not as dense as it was a couple days ago. Isolated showers have
recently formed near the wave axis from 13N-19N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W from 04N-20N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
seen along and within 180 nm east of the wave axis S of 15N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83/84W from 03N-19N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate convection is near and
within 120 nm E of the wave axis from 12N-17N, including over
eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W to
a 1012 mb low near 09N26W to 07N33W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N40W to 08N49W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near
08N53W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection and showers mentioned
in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate convection
is seen 08N-13N between the west coast of Africa and 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from a 1012 mb low along the eastern
portion of the Florida/Georgia border near 31N82W to 28N89W to
26N93W, then continues as a cold front to 25N97W to 27N104W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm N and within
120 nm S of the fronts. Elsewhere within 180 nm S of the front,
scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted. A small upper-
level low is over the Bay of Campeche, enhancing scattered showers
and tstorms south of 23N between 92W-97W.

The stationary front over the northern Gulf of Mexico may develop
a low pressure in the northern Gulf on Thu and move NE of the
area on Fri. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
in that area during the next 48 hours. Moderate to fresh NE winds
are expected NW of the front through Thu. Moderate to fresh SW to
W winds will be ahead of the front, briefly increasing to strong
Thu afternoon and evening. A surface trough will develop over NE
Mexico adjacent waters on Thu, prevailing in the region before
moving inland Fri morning. Otherwise, each night a surface trough
will form and move off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of
Campeche accompanied with fresh to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above
for details.

An upper-level trough axis extends SW from an upper-level low
near 25N70W to Haiti to 14N78W to 15N80W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails in the SE Caribbean from 10N-13N between
63W-66W in advance of the next tropical wave. Scattered moderate
convection is being enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough in
the SW Caribbean south of 11.5N. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with an area of strong
trades in the Central Caribbean between 72W-76W.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend,
pulsing to near gale force at night along the coast of Colombia
and over the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong winds will expand northward
towards Hispaniola adjacent waters and the Windward Passage on
Thu as high pressure strengthens and a tropical wave moves across
the central basin. Winds in the northern-central basin will
diminish on Sat as the wave moves over the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N78.5W and extends
SW to a 1012 mb low along the Florida/Georgia border near 31N82W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen along and northwest of a
line from Cape Canaveral Florida to 30N77W to 32N74W. Scattered
showers and tstorms are also seen from 26N-30N between 76W-79W. An
upper-level low near 25N70W is helping to induce scattered showers
and tstorms just to the northeast of the SE and central Bahamas
from 23N-27N between 69W-75.5W, and also from 27N-31N between
65W-69W. A little farther E, a surface trough from 30N51W to
26N56W is producing isolated to scattered light showers near and
just W of the trough axis. High pressure ridging covers the
remainder of basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high near 30N43W.

The cold front that extends from 32N78.5W to 31N82W will move
into the NW waters this evening and stall tonight N of the Bahamas
before dissipating on Thu. The pressure gradient between the
frontal boundary and high pressure to the east will support
moderate to fresh S to SW winds N of 27N through Thu. Gentle to
moderate SE winds will dominate the remainder of the western
Atlantic, except N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the
Windward Passage where fresh to strong winds will pulse at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net