[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W from 03N-18N,
moving W at 10 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance
and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N-10N between 23W-30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W from 03N-22N,
moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N-09N between 45W-50W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within
180 nm of the wave axis south of 13N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W from 03N-19N,
moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded within the middle
of a strong outbreak of Saharan dust. No convection is present at
this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W/71W from 05N-20N,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over
Hispaniola, N Colombia, and NW Venezuela.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W from 04N-20N,
moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 180
nm of the wave axis to include over Jamaica, Costa Rica, and
Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N16W
to 09N21W to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N34W to 09N46W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N49W to 08N55W. Aside from
the convection and showers mentioned in the tropical wave section
above, scattered showers are within 300 nm south of the ITCZ
between 34W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to S Texas.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front, mostly
N of 26N. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the
Yucatan Peninsula, and S Mexico. 15 kt northerly winds are N of
the front. 5-10 kt variable winds are S of the front. Of note in
the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the SE
Gulf of Mexico near 27N85W. Another small upper level low is
centered over the Bay of Campeche near 21N94W.

A weak cold front will move across the northern Gulf of Mexico
through Wed, with moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevailing
behind the front. The front will stall from the Florida Big Bend
to S Texas on Wed night, then dissipate through Thu. Weak high
pressure will build over the NE Gulf Fri. A surface trough will
move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, supporting fresh to
occasionally strong winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above
for details.

Scattered moderate convection prevails over the Windward Islands
in advance of the next tropical wave. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with highest winds over
the south central Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sat, pulsing to
near gale force along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of
Venezuela at night. Strong winds will develop south of Hispaniola
beginning on Thu as high pressure strengthens. A tropical wave
will cross the Windward Islands late Wed night and move over the
eastern Caribbean on Thu, with fresh to strong winds east of the
wave axis.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for more information on the
three tropical waves over the Atlantic.

Patches of scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic W
of 74W to include the Bahamas. A 1024 mb high is centered over the
central Atlantic near 31N58W. A 1025 mb high is over the E
Atlantic near 30N43W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper
level low ic centered over the W Atlantic near 25N70W. Upper level
diffluence NE of the center is producing isolated moderate
convection from from 25N-30N between 64W-70W.

Over the W Atlantic, high pressure along 28N/29N will shift
southward Wed. This will enable a cold front to move into the NW
waters Thu. The front will become stationary Thu night, then
gradually weaken over the NW portion Fri and Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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