[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
751 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 25W from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance
and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection prevails south of 09N between 22W-28W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 45W from
02N-21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are south of
13N between 45W-48W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 53W from
18W southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded
within the middle of a strong outbreak of Saharan dust, therefore
no convection is present at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 68W from 19N
southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted
inland over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Venezuela.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W south of 19N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is over Jamaica and Panama.  Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 17N-19N between 78W-79W and
from 09N-10N between 77W-82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W
to 10N34W. The ITCZ extends from 10N34W to 08N45W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave near 08N48W to 08N53W. Aside from the
showers mentioned in the tropical wave section above, scattered
showers are noted along the monsoon trough from 06N-12N between
53W-23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored over the
west Atlantic. A stationary front extends from a 1007 mb low in
the southeast coast to the northwest coast of Texas entering the
Gulf waters from 29N92W to 27N97W. A surface trough is located 150
nm ahead of the front from 27N90W to 25N95W. Scattered moderate
strong convection is noted along the frontal boundary and the
trough covering the northern Gulf coast. The convection extends
from 25N-30N between the Florida Panhandle to the coast of
Louisiana to the South Texas, W of 84W. Two other troughs are
noted, one west of the Yucatan Peninsula from 20N91W to 18N93W,
and a second trough near the Mexican coast from 23N97W to 19N95W.
Scattered moderate convection is developing along the troughs.
Aside from the convection gusty winds, gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the basin.

A weak front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico through
Wed, with moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevailing behind the
front. The front will stall from the Florida Big Bend to S Texas
on Wed night, then dissipate through Thu. Weak high pressure will
build over the NE Gulf Fri and Sat. A surface trough will move off
the Yucatan Peninsula each night, supporting fresh to occasionally
strong winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above
for details.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection prevails across the
Greater Antilles. In the south-central Caribbean scattered showers
are present in the vicinity of the monsoon trough south of 13N
between 71W-76W. This activity is also affecting portions of
Central America. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades across the basin, with highest winds over the south central
Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sat, becoming
near gale force along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of
Venezuela at night. Strong winds will develop south of Hispaniola
beginning on Thu as high pressure strengthens. A tropical wave
will cross the Windward Islands late Wed night and move over the
eastern Caribbean on Thu, with fresh to strong winds east of the
wave axis.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for more information on the
two tropical waves over the Atlantic.

Surface ridge extends along 29N covering the basin, anchored by a
1024 mb high near 28N34W and another high centered near 30N57W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing west of 62W
across the northern Bahamas and the coast of Florida and from
31N to 21N. A weak 1014 mb surface low is centered near 29N78W.
Scattered moderate convection extends 100 nm out from the low
center.

High pres along 28N/29N will shift southward Wed. This will
enable a cold front to move into the NW waters Thu. The front
will become stationary Thu night, then gradually weaken over
the NW portion Fri and Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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