[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 22W and
S of 20N, moving W around 15-20 kt. At this time, no significant
convection is noted in the wave's environment. Showers are seen
within 100 nm on either side of this feature from 06N- 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 20N46W to
04N47W, moving W around 10-15k. At this time, no significant
convection is noted in the wave's environment.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 55W and S
of 20N and moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
S of 10N between 53W-59W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 75W
from 07N-19N, moving W around 20 kt. No significant convection is
noted with this feature at this time.

The northern portion of a tropical wave extends across the Yucatan
Peninsula along 92W and S of 19N moving W around 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted across the whole peninsula
and adjacent waters between 86W-94W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W
to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 09N47W, then W of a
tropical wave near 09N50W to 08N54W. Scattered showers are seen
S the monsoon trough mainly east of 21W, while scattered moderate
convection is seen along the ITCZ mainly west of 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An inverted mid-to-upper level trough extends from the SE U.S. to
the Yucatan. This is giving way to scattered moderate convection
across the northeast Gulf N of 26N and E of 90W. A surface trough
is analyzed from 29N90W to 28N87W and is acting as a focal point
for this convection. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails, anchored
by a 1020 mb high centered near 29N85W. Light to gentle S-SE
winds are noted across the Gulf, with pulsing moderate winds over
the Bay of Campeche.

The surface trough over the north central Gulf will continue to support
showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf N of 27N between 84W and
90W tonight before it dissipates. A ridge will build along the
northern Gulf coast Sun and Mon, then start to retreat eastward
midweek. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will continue across
most of the basin, except fresh to locally strong winds will pulse
NW of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave.

An upper level trough extends into the NW Caribbean. This is
contributing to convection across the NW basin. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted over Cuba, Grand Cayman Islands, and
into the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers are moving across
the Lesser Antilles. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate
to fresh trades across the Caribbean, with strong winds in the
Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate trades prevail in the NW
basin.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support pulsing fresh
to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through next
week. Winds will reach near-gale force strength each night along
the coast of Colombia through Sun night. Fresh easterly winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each night this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
currently moving across the basin.

Convection associated with the activity in the Gulf of Mexico is
also seen in the western Atlantic along the S Florida coast moving
inland in addition to the northern Bahamas mainly west of 77W. To
the east, a surface trough extends from 27N67W to 20N68W with
scattered showers. Another trough is analyzed from 25N47W to
30N41W with isolated showers. Surface ridging is seen across the
rest of the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high near 29N63W and a
1020 mb high near 29N51W. Moderate easterly winds are seen
between Cuba and the Bahamas, E of 78W. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are noted off the coast of Western Sahara and
Mauritania.

The surface ridge along will maintain gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds across the region through Tue night. The ridge
will start retreating eastward Tue enabling a trough to move into
the NW waters Thu. Fresh to occasionally strong E winds will pulse
N of Hispaniola each night through the middle of next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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