[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1719 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W S of 15N, moving W
around 20 kt. Showers are seen within 100 nm on either side of
this feature from 06N-10N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is seen from 06N49W to 15N45W,
moving W around 10-15k. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are
seen near this feature from 06N-08N between 48W-50W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, S of 17N and
moving W around 20 kt. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are
seen near this feature from 06N-11N between 53W-56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W, S of 18N and moving W
around 20 kt. No significant convection is seen with this feature
at this time.

A tropical wave over Central America is along 90W, from 20N
stretching into the East Pacific and moving W around 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen moving across
Belize and the Yucatan into Guatemala, from 16N-19N between 88W-
90W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau/Guinea
near 11N15W to 08N20W to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to
10N47W, then W of a tropical wave near 10N49W to 08N54W. The ITCZ
continues W of another tropical wave from 08N55W to the coast of
Guyana near 07N57W. Scattered showers are seen along the monsoon
trough from 06N-10N between 16W-20W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen along the ITCZ from 06N-11N between 51W-58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An inverted middle and upper level trough extends from the SE
U.S. to the Yucatan. This is giving way to scattered moderate to
isolated strong thunderstorms across the north and central Gulf
from 23N- 30N between 83W-92W. A trough is also reflected at the
surface; it is analyzed from 26N88W to 30N86W and is acting as a
focal point for this convection. Otherwise, surface ridging is
seen across the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle S-SE winds are
seen across the Gulf, with some moderate winds in the Bay of
Campeche.

The surface trough will continue to support showers and
thunderstorms over the Gulf N of 27N between 84W and 90W today. A
ridge will remain along the northern Gulf coast through Monday,
then shift S on Tuesday. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will
continue across most of the basin, except fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse NW of the Yucatan peninsula each night through
Wednesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends into the NW Caribbean. This, along
with the tropical wave along 90W, is contributing to convection
across the NW basin. Isolated thunderstorms are seen across Cuba,
west of the Grand Cayman Islands, and into the Gulf of Honduras.
The other area of significant convection is across Puerto Rico
where scattered moderate convection is occurring over the island
and in adjacent waters. Isolated showers are seen moving across
the Lesser Antilles. Scattered moderate convection is also noted
in east-central Nicaragua. Latest scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean with strong winds in
the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate trades are seen in the
NW basin.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the central Caribbean through next week. Winds will
pulse to near gale force each night along the coast of Colombia
through Sunday night. Fresh easterly winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Honduras each night this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convection associated with the activity in the Gulf is also seen
in the western Atlantic along the S Florida coast moving inland in
addition to the northern Bahamas. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is seen from 23N-31N between 77W-80W. A surface trough
is seen farthest east from 19N69W to 26N66W. Scattered showers
with isolated thunderstorms are seen near this feature from 21N-
26N between 63W-70W. Another trough is seen from 28N57W to 30N53W
with some isolated thunderstorms within 50 nm of it. The last
surface trough is analyzed from 22N47W to 29N43W with no
significant convection associated with it. Surface ridging is seen
across the rest of the basin anchored by 1021 mb highs near
29N70W and 29N51W. Moderate easterly winds are seen between Cuba
and the Bahamas, E of 78W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are
noted off the coast of Western Sahara and Mauritania.

The ridge around 29N/30N will maintain gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds across the region through Wednesday night. Fresh
to occasionally strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola each
night through the middle of next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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