[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192338
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
737 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis in the eastern Atlantic is along 19W from
04N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
seen within 180 nm of the wave axis from 06N-10N. The wave is
well-defined from the 700 mb trough diagnostics.

A tropical wave axis is near 40W from 05N-19N, moving W at 20-25
kt. Isolated showers are seen from 06N-09N between 37W-42W.

A tropical wave axis is near 46W from 05N-26N, moving WSW around
10 kt. This wave originated over the NE Atlantic. Isolated showers
are seen within 180 nm of the wave axis south of 12N. The wave
has a surface trough as seen in this morning's scatterometer pass
and is very prominent in the 700 mb trough diagnostics. Most of
the wave is traveling through a drier environment of the Saharan
Air Layer limiting convection.

A Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 65W from 20N southward,
moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen
from 15N-19N between 64W-68W. The wave has a surface trough as
seen in this morning's scatterometer pass. At 700 mb, the wave is
well-defined from the San Juan and Guadeloupe rawindsondes and
the total precipitable water imagery.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W from 21N southward, moving
west around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
11N-17N between 82W-87W, including over eastern and central
portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. Scattered showers and tstorms
are also near the wave axis south of western Cuba from 19N-21N.
The wave has little surface component, but is well-defined by 700
mb trough diagnostics and the 12Z rawindsonde at Grand Cayman.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 14N20W to 09N33W. The ITCZ extends from 09N33W to 08N39W
to 09N43W to 05N53W. Outside the convection mentioned in the
Tropical Waves section, no significant deep convection is present
along the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level high is centered over Tennessee and Kentucky.
Upper-level troughing extends from well E of the NW Bahamas to
South Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. In between the upper-level
high and trough, upper-level diffluence is enhancing numerous
moderate with embedded isolated strong convection over southern
portions of Georgia and Alabama, SE Mississippi, northern Florida,
and the NE Gulf of Mexico north of 28N and east of 86W. Troughing
in the low to mid levels over the SE U.S. is also enhancing this
convection. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere
north of 23N and east of 94W. Isolated showers and tstorms are
seen near a surface trough in the west-central Bay of Campeche.
Despite the moisture and thunderstorm activity mentioned above,
weak surface ridging covers most of the basin, with gentle winds,
except for moderate SE winds in the western Gulf.

A ridge will remain along the northern Gulf coast through Mon,
then shift S over the central Gulf Tue. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds will continue across most of the basin, except fresh winds
NW of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally fresh to strong breeze E tradewinds prevail over the
central Caribbean, with a moderate breeze in the NW Caribbean.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves,
mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers
and tstorms are occurring over Cuba, Hispaniola and Jamaica, and
are also seen over N Colombia, Panama and the SW Caribbean south
of 10N from 75W-82W, associated with the Eastern North Pacific's
monsoon trough.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds over the central Caribbean through the middle of next
week. Winds will pulse to near gale force each night along the N
coast of Colombia through Sun night. Fresh easterly winds will
pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper-level troughing in the western Atlantic is enhancing
scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the NW and central
Bahamas, as well as the waters from 23N-31N between 70W-80W. A
westward moving surface trough from 22N64W to 27N63W is enhancing
scattered showers and tstorms from 22N-27N between 59W-65W. E-W
surface ridging seen along 29N throughout much of the basin is
anchored by a 1022 mb high near 29N60W. A weak pressure gradient
south of the ridge is promoting generally moderate tradewinds.

An E-W ridge aligned along 29N/30N in the western Atlantic will
maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds through Wed
night. Fresh to occasionally strong E winds will pulse N of
Hispaniola each night through the middle of next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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