[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along the coast of West Africa near 17W
from 04N-21N. Scattered moderate convection is noted offshore from
08N-11N east of 20W. The wave is well-defined from the 700 mb
trough diagnostics.

A tropical wave axis is near 37W from 07N-22N, moving W at 15-20
kt. No significant deep convection is near the wave. This wave is
becoming difficult to analyze both at the surface and at 700 mb as
it is becoming absorbed with the wave to its west at 47W.

A tropical wave axis is near 47W from 07N-24N, moving SW around
15 kt. This wave originated over the NE Atlantic. No significant
deep convection is near the wave. The wave has a surface trough as
seen in this morning's scatterometer pass and is very prominent in
the 700 mb trough diagnostics. Most of the wave is traveling
through a drier environment of the Saharan Air Layer limiting
convection.

A Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 63W from 21N southward,
moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends
from 15N-18N between 63W-67W. The wave has a surface trough as
seen in this morning's scatterometer pass. At 700 mb, the wave is
well-defined from the San Juan and Guadeloupe rawindsondes and the
total precipitable water imagery.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W from 23N southward, moving
west 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of
Cuba from 19N-22N between 79W-82W. The wave has little surface
component, but is well-defined by 700 mb trough diagnostics and
the 12Z rawindsonde at Grand Cayman.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 13N33W. The ITCZ extends from 11N38W to 04N52W. Outside the
convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, no significant
deep convection is present along the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging over the SE United States is promoting generally
gentle to moderate SE winds across the Gulf, as observed from
ships, oil platforms, and scatterometer this morning. Isolated
moderate convection is occurring from 24N-31N between 80-90W, in
association with a retrograding upper-low over the NW Bahamas and
Florida.

A ridge will remain along the northern Gulf coast through Mon,
then shift S over the central Gulf Tue. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds will continue across most of the basin, except fresh winds
NW of the Yucatan peninsula each night through next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the wave
over the Western Caribbean and the wave over the Eastern Caribbean.

A moderate NE-SW gradient of pressure between the 1024 mb Bermuda
High near 30N59W and the 1008 mb Colombian Low near 10N76W is
supporting generally moderate to strong breeze E tradewinds,
except to near gale northwest of the Caribbean. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 10-13N between 81W-84W in association
with the Eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds over the central Caribbean through the middle of next
week. Winds will pulse to near gale force each night along the N
coast of Colombia through Sun night. Fresh easterly winds will
pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the three
waves traversing the basin.

Surface ridging runs along our northern border between the 1024
mb Bermuda High near 30N59W to the 1026 mb Azores High near
34N29W. A weak pressure gradient south of the ridge is promoting
generally fresh to moderate tradewinds. A surface trough - broken
off from an easterly wave - extends from 23N63W to 26N62W - has
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 23N-26N
between 60W-65W.

A persistent ridge aligned along 30N will maintain gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds through Tue night. Fresh to
strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola each night through the
middle of next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea
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