[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near the coast of Africa along 14W from 03N-
16N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted offshore from 07N-12N between 13W-18W.

A tropical wave is along 33W from 19N southward, moving W at 15
kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends from 27N47W to 18N47W to 06N47W, moving
SW around 15 kt. This wave originated over the NE Atlantic.
Scattered showers are seen in the southern portion of the wave
south of 09N. Most of the wave is traveling through a drier
enviroment limiting convection.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W from 24N southward, moving
west at 10-15 kt. This wave has a well defined surface signature
on satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is over the N
apex of the wave from 22N-26N between 56W-63W. Scattered showers
are also seen from 13N-16N between 63W-67W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W from 24N southward, moving
west around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
over Windward Passage, Cuba and Jamaica. An area of scattered
moderate to strong convection is also noted over the West coast
of Colombia and eastern Panama inlando moving offshore.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends from 09N25W to 09N31W, then
continues W of a tropical wave from 08N37W to 03N50W near the
coast of Brazil. Besides the convection mentioned in the Tropical
Waves section, scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the
boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging is over much of the Gulf of Mexico, extending
from the subtropical ridge over the west Atlantic. ASCAT shows
gentle winds continue to prevail over much of the basin, with
some moderate SE winds over the southwestern and far western Gulf.
Above normal mid-level atmospheric moisture content in the
eastern Gulf is leading to scattered showers along the Florida
Panhandle and eastern GUlf of Mexico, and the Straits of FL. The
diurnal trough is present from 23N89W to 17N91W. At this time, no
convection is observed with the trough.

A ridge will remain along the northern Gulf coast through Sun
night. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will continue
across most of the basin, except fresh winds NW of the Yucatan
peninsula each night through next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the wave
over the Central Caribbean and the wave approaching the Lesser
Antilles.

ASCAT shows strong winds from 11N-14N between 68W-73W, with fresh
winds across the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh trades are also in
the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds are elsewhere. GOES-16 water
vapor channels show that relatively dry air covers portions of the
central and NW Caribbean. The only areas of significant
precipitation noted is in the Western Caribbean near the land
areas of Cuba and Jamaica, as well as in the far SW Caribbean
south of 10N near the coast of Panama and Costa Rica associated to
the Pacific monsoon trough.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the central Caribbean through the middle of next
week. Fresh easterly winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras
each night through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
waves traversing the basin.

A pair of weak upper-level lows over the western Atlantic are
near 25N76W and 25N66W, respectively. The western one is aiding
in scattered showers and tstorms in the nothern Bahamas. Surface
ridging dominates the remainder of the basin, with a 1026 mb high
near 35N29W south of the Azores.

A persistent ridge along 29N will maintain gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds through Tue night. Easterly winds will
pulse to fresh to strong north of Hispaniola each night through
the middle of next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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