[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
152 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Barry, at 13/0600 UTC, is centered in the north
central Gulf of Mexico near 28.7N 91.1W, or about 60 nm S of
Morgan City Louisiana, and about 30 nm S of the coast of
Louisiana. The central pressure is 993 mb and maximum sustained
winds are 55 kt gusting to 65 kt. Barry is moving to the WNW at 3
kt. Numerous strong convection is within 240 nm in the SW
quadrant, 180 nm in the SE quadrant, 60 nm in the NE quadrant and
30 nm in the NW quadrant of T.S. Barry. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is elsewhere from 23N-29.5N between 88W-96W.
Latest ASCAT pass received just after the 13/0300 UTC advisory
shows winds in the 40-50 kt range extending out more than 60 nm in
the eastern semicircle. See hurricanes.gov to view the latest
Public Advisory and Forecast Advisory for T.S. Barry.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W from 05N-16N, moving
W around 10 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is
east of the wave axis from 05N-15N between 12W-16W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are from 06N-12N between 16W-25W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39/40W from 03N-17N,
moving W around 15 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is along the wave
axis near 08N39W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are from
06N-12N between 34W-45W. This system has a low chance of tropical
cyclone development during the next couple of days as it
continues westward.

A eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W from 04N-16N,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are within
180 nm W and 270 nm E of the wave axis, mainly south of 16N.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from 05N-17N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. At this time, no significant convection is
seen near this wave due to dry air and subsidence.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W from 15N
southward, moving at 10 kt. The wave axis is along the coast of
Nicaragua and extends inland over Honduras and into the East
Pacific. Isolated to scattered showers and tstorms are along the
east coast of southern Nicaragua and inland over Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal areas of southwestern
Senegal near 12N17W to 10N21W to 10N30W. The ITCZ begins near
10N30W to 10N37W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 06N43W to
04N52W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered showers are near the monsoon trough between
26W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.S. Barry is over the north central Gulf of Mexico. See the
Special Features section above for details.

Scattered moderate convection is also over the NE Gulf. Isolated
showers and tstorms are over north and central Florida as well as
western Cuba. Elsewhere, scattered showers and tstorms are inland
over S Mexico between 92W-99W. In the upper levels, a small upper
level high centered near Houston Texas continues to produce some
northerly wind shear over T.S. Barry.

Tropical Storm Barry is forecast to move inland along the mid-
Louisiana coast to the west of Morgan City in the vicinity of
Vermilion Bay during the day on Saturday as a 65 kt Category 1
hurricane. Barry will then move slowly northward and farther
inland while weakening. Tropical storm force winds are forecast to
continue over the Gulf waters near the Louisiana coast until late
Saturday evening or early Sunday morning. Winds over the far
northern Gulf are then forecast to diminish to below 25 kt by
late Sunday evening. Seas in excess of 20 ft now just off the
Louisiana coast will subside to below 10 ft by sunrise Sunday
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is entering the E Caribbean Sea. Two other
tropical waves are also over the Caribbean. See above. In
addition, scattered showers and tstorms are south of E Cuba from
18N-21N between 73W-83W. Subsidence is over much of the central
Caribbean.

High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds
over the S central Caribbean for the entire period. Winds will be
fresh to occasionally strong over the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical
wave near 73W will reach the western Caribbean Sunday. Another
tropical wave near 61W will reach the central Caribbean Sun, then
reach the western Caribbean Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and tstorms are moving eastward to the east of
northern Florida, north of 28N between 78W-80W. A 1019 mb high is
near 28N71W. A small sfc trough from 28N63W to 29N65W has
scattered showers and tstorms near it. A 1016 mb low is near
30N55W with a dissipating stationary front extending SE from the
low to 26N61W. Isolated to scattered showers are along and within
90 nm SE of the weakening front. A stationary front extends ENE
from the low to beyond 32N50W. Ridging covers the E Atlantic,
anchored by a 1025 mb high near 32N33W.

A trough will move westward across the waters S of 27N from near
64W Sat through early Tue when it will reach the Florida
Peninsula. Otherwise, high pres will dominate the region through
early next week, generally bringing gentle to moderate breezes,
except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse
during the evenings.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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