[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
735 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Barry, at 12/2100 UTC, is centered in the north
central Gulf of Mexico near 28.7N 90.9W with a central pressure
of 993 mb and moving WNW at 04 kt. This position is about 61 nm
SSE of Morgan City, Louisiana. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Numerous strong convection
is within 180 nm of the S quadrant of T.S. Barry. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is elsewhere is from 22N-29N between
87W-96W. See the latest Public Advisories for T.S. Barry via the
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES for Barry are available under the WMO header
WTNT22 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. See www.hurricanes.gov
for more details also.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W from 05N-16N, moving
W at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N
between 16W-23W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 03N-17N, moving
W at 15-20 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure along the wave axis near
08N38W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W from 04N-16N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 06N-17N,
moving W at 15 kt. At this time, no significant convection is seen
near this wave.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W from 02N-16N,
moving W at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
06N-12N between 77W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 13N16W to 10N30W. The ITCZ continues from 10N30W to
08N36W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N42W and
continues to the coast of N Brazil near 04N51W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, a large area of
scattered moderate to strong convection is inland over W Africa
from 06N-15N between 09W-15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.S. Barry is over the north central Gulf of Mexico. See the
SPECIAL FEATURES section above.

Scattered moderate convection is also over the NE Gulf and over
north and central Florida. More scattered moderate convection is
over W Cuba. Elsewhere, patches of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is inland over S Mexico between 90W-99W. In the
upper levels, a small upper level high is centered over E Texas
near 30N94W producing some shear over T.S. Barry.

Tropical Storm Barry will move to 29.2N 91.3W tonight, strengthen
to a hurricane, then move inland over Louisiana near 30.1N 91.9W
Saturday afternoon. Barry will weaken and move farther inland near
31.3N 92.3W Saturday night, then become a tropical depression
Sunday afternoon near 32.5N 92.5W. By Sunday night, Barry will be
near 33.8N 92.7W, then become a remnant low in Arkansas on Monday.
Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf of Mexico Sun into
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is entering the E Caribbean Sea. Two other
tropical waves are also over the Caribbean. See above. In
addition, widely scattered moderate convection is over E Cuba and
Jamaica. In the upper levels, strong subsidence is over the
central and eastern Caribbean.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the S central Caribbean for the entire period. Winds
will be fresh to occasionally strong over the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is seen along the NE Florida coast N
of Daytona Beach. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
also over the N Bahamas. A surface trough is over the N Bahamas
from 28N79W to 23N79W. A 1019 mb high is centered over the W
Atlantic near 27N70W. A 1016 mb low is centered further E near
30N55W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the low. A 1025 mb
high is centered over the Azores near 38N26W.

Over the W Atlantic, a trough will move westward across the
waters S of 27N Saturday through early Tuesday when it will reach
the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the
region through early next week, generally bringing gentle to
moderate breezes, except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong
trades will pulse during the evenings.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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