[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 120835
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
400 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Barry does not have the typical presentation of a tropical cyclone
on satellite imagery at this time.  The cloud pattern consists of a
cyclonically curved convective band on the southern semicircle, and
the system is devoid of an inner convective core near the center.
Barry is an asymmetric storm with most of the tropical-storm-force
winds occurring in the eastern semicircle.  An Air Force plane
sampled the area a few hours ago and measured peak flight-level
winds of 51 kt with SFMR winds of 43 kt. On this basis, the initial
intensity is kept at 45 kt in this advisory. Another reconnaissance
plane will be investigating Barry in a few hours.

Barry is moving over warm waters of about 30 degrees Celsius,
and still has the opportunity to strengthen. Although the NHC
intensity forecast again does not explicitly show Barry becoming a
hurricane, it is still possible for that to occur before landfall
in about 24 hours.  Most of the models show modest strengthening
despite the northerly shear and the effect of the dry air.
After landfall, steady weakening is anticipated.

The broad center of circulation appears to be moving slowly toward
the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 4 kt. This is taking the
average motion of the several swirls rotating around a larger
circulation. The cyclone should soon begin to turn toward
the northwest and then northward around the periphery of a mid-level
ridge. The overall guidance has changed very little and the NHC
forecast is not different from the previous one. It is in the
middle of the guidance envelope and very close to the multi-model
consensus.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. Residents in
these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early
next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become
increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially
along and east of the track of the system.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.  Residents in
these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area
by Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 28.1N  90.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 28.4N  90.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 29.1N  91.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 30.0N  92.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  14/0600Z 31.5N  92.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  15/0600Z 34.0N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  16/0600Z 36.5N  91.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  17/0600Z 39.5N  87.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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