[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 120255
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Despite the lack of convection over the northern portion of the
storm, reconnaissance aircraft data show that Barry has
strengthened this evening.  The aircraft has found peak 850 mb
flight-level winds of 55 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 45
kt.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been increased
to 45 kt.  The NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve aircraft have also
reported that the pressure has fallen a couple of millibars since
the previous advisory.

The tropical storm continues to be affected by northerly shear and
dry mid-level air.  Despite the shear, nearly all of the intensity
guidance and the global models gradually deepen the cyclone during
the next 24-36 hours and the NHC intensity forecast once again
calls for strengthening until the cyclone reaches the coast.
Although the NHC intensity forecast again does not explicitly show
Barry becoming a hurricane, it is still possible for that to occur
before landfall.  After that time, steady weakening is expected
while the center moves inland.  The intensity guidance is in
relatively good agreement, and the NHC forecast is in best
agreement with the latest HFIP-corrected-consensus model.

Barry is moving westward or 275 degrees at about 3 kt.  The tropical
storm should move slowly westward to west-northwestward around
the southern portion of a mid-level ridge tonight and Friday. After
that time, a weakness in the ridge should cause Barry to turn
northwestward, then northward later in the weekend.  The overall
track guidance envelope changed little this cycle.  The UKMET
is still along along the far western side of the envelope, but the
18Z HWRF did shift westward and is closer to the center of the
envelope.  The NHC forecast track is very close to the previous
official forecast, and lies between the GFEX and HCCA consensus
models.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. Residents in
these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early
next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become
increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially
along and east of the track of the system.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.  Residents in
these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area
by Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 27.9N  89.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 28.0N  89.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 28.5N  90.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 29.5N  91.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  14/0000Z 30.5N  91.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 72H  15/0000Z 33.2N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  16/0000Z 35.7N  91.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  17/0000Z 38.2N  87.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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