[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad low pressure area located over the Florida Panhandle and
the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development and a tropical depression is
expected to form late Wednesday or Thursday as the low moves
slowly westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. In addition,
this disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from
the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle during the next
several days, and interests in those areas should continue to
monitor the progress of this system. For more information, please
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W from 16N southward,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 210 nm of the
wave axis from 05N-08N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 16N southward,
moving W around 15-20 kt. There are some showers seen along the
feature but no significant deep convection at this time.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W from 14N southward,
moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen within 150 nm
of the wave axis from 04N-10N. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms
are likely for the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Friday
into Saturday.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W from 04N-17N, moving W
at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
over the eastern Caribbean and northern Venezuela within 60 nm of
the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W from 06N-20N, moving W
around 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen along
the wave from 09N-16N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of The
Gambia/Senegal near 13N17W to 08N22W to 08N33W. The ITCZ begins
near 08N37W to 08N46W, then continues W of a tropical wave near
08N50W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Aside from the
convection mentioned above in the tropical waves section,
scattered moderate convection is seen along the monsoon trough
from 05N-09N between 24W-34W. Showers are also seen within 150 nm
north of the ITCZ between 37W-58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for more details on the
low expected to move into the Gulf this week.

A mid-low level low and trough are confined to the northeast Gulf
bringing enhanced convection across the area. The broad area of
low pressure is centered over the Florida Panhandle with a 1011 mb
low analyzed near 30N85W with a trough extending into the eastern
Gulf from this low to 28N83W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 28N-30N between 83W-91W. The strongest area of
convection is coming off the central Louisiana coast N of 28N
between 87W-91W. Weak surface ridging prevails in the western Gulf
anchored by a 1015 mb high near 26N92W. Scatterometer data depicts
light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin.

Weak high pressure will dominate the western Gulf through
Wednesday. Low pressure emerging into the NE Gulf this evening
will strengthen Wednesday through late week, likely into a
tropical cyclone. This feature will drift generally westward
toward the north-central and northwest Gulf into the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section for information on the tropical
waves currently traversing the Caribbean.

Upper-level low centered over the northern Caribbean extending
into the central basin, along with a deep plume of moisture, is
enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection near Cuba and
Jamaica. This convection is seen from 16N-21N between 78W- 82W.
Scattered moderate convection is also seen near the Dominican
Republic from 17N-18N between 68W- 71W with showers moving across
Puerto Rico. Numerous moderate to strong convection continues
across the SW Caribbean off the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and
Nicaragua enhanced by the monsoon trough. This is seen south of
13N between 78W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades in the central Caribbean with moderate trades in the
eastern basin, and light to gentle trades across the rest of the
area.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean for the entire period. A
westward moving tropical wave over the western Caribbean will
weaken as it approaches Central America Wednesday. Another
tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will also weaken as it
moves into the western Caribbean through late week. A third
tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Thursday and move
through the central Caribbean Friday and Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The broad area of low pressure in the NE Gulf is contributing to
isolated thunderstorms over the western Atlantic W of 76W.
Additionally, the upper-level low contributing to convection over
the Caribbean is also giving way to scattered moderate convection
across the Bahamas from 22N-26N between 75W-79W. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms continue across the Atlantic from 25N-29N
between 54W-66W likely due to enhanced moisture in the area as
seen on TPW. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin
anchored by a 1025 mb high near 27N56W. Moderate easterly winds
are seen north of Hispaniola in the latest scatterometer data.

Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will persist through Wed
over the offshore waters NE of Florida due to developing low pres
over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, high pressure dominating
the region will support gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere,
except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse
at night.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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