[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
733 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2310 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad 1011 mb low pressure area centered near Apalachicola
Florida will move out over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
tonight. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rain is likely during the next
several days from the Florida Panhandle to the Upper Texas coast.
This system could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this
week or this weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast, and
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for a portion
of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. High seas and very gusty
squalls are expected across the northern Gulf of Mexico during
the next several days. For more information, please see products
issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W from 17N southward,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate rainshowers are within
210 nm of the wave axis from 04N-10N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33/34W from 15N
southward, moving W around 15 kt. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent at this time.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W from 15N southward,
moving W around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are seen within 150 nm
of the wave axis from 07N-11N. Enhanced showers and tstorms are
likely for the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Friday into
Saturday.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W from 04N-17N, moving W
at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are over the eastern
Caribbean and northern Colombia within 60 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W from 06N-20N, moving W
around 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave axis south
of 13N. Isolated showers are near the axis north of 13N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 08N22W to 08N32W. The ITCZ begins near
08N35W to 09N45W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 07N48W
to the coast of South America near 08N59W. Aside from the
convection mentioned above in the tropical waves section,
scattered showers are seen along the monsoon trough between 29W-
32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad 1011 mb surface low is centered over the Florida
Panhandle north of Apalachicola near 30N85W. A surface trough
extends from SE Alabama through the low and then southward over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico along 84W. Scattered moderate with
embedded isolated strong convection is associated with this broad
low north of 25N between 81W-89W. This includes the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, Florida and southern portions of Georgia, Alabama and
Mississippi. Weak upper-level ridging is on top of the system over
the northeast and north-central Gulf. Weak surface ridging
prevails over the western Gulf, leading to mostly fair weather
west of 90W. The weak high pressure will dominate the western
Gulf through Wednesday. The low pressure near Apalachicola Florida
will move into the NE Gulf tonight and strengthen through the
remainder of the week, likely into a tropical cyclone, as it
moves westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico. See Special
Features section above for details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level divergence and high precipitable water values over
Cuba are enhancing afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms over Cuba and the Cayman Islands, and over water
from 19N-22N between 76W-84W. A surface trough over Hispaniola is
enhancing showers and tstorms over Hispaniola and also producing
showers north of 14N between 67W-70W. In the far SW Caribbean, the
East Pacific monsoon trough is over Panama's latitude. Scattered
showers and tstorms are seen south of 12N, west of 77W.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean for the entire period. A
westward moving tropical wave over the western Caribbean will
weaken as it approaches Central America Wednesday. Another
tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will also weaken as it
moves into the western Caribbean through late week. A third
tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Thu night or early
Fri and move through the eastern Caribbean Fri and central
Caribbean Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from the coast of South Carolina to a
1011 mb low over the central Florida Panhandle. Most of the
precipitation associated with these features is over land or over
the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but some isolated showers and
tstorms are over the Atlantic waters west of 78W. A mid-level
trough is south of a front over the Atlantic waters to the north
of the area. This trough is producing scattered showers and
isolated tstorms within 60 nm of a line from 30N76W to 32N67W. A
surface trough over Hispaniola is inducing scattered showers and
tstorms between Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Isolated showers and tstorms are seen from 24N-29N between 62W-
70W, likely due to enhanced moisture in the area as seen on TPW.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1025 mb high near 27N54W.

Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will persist through Wed
over the offshore waters NE of Florida due to developing low pres
over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, high pressure dominating
the region will support gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere,
except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse
during the nights.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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