[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061715
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over west Africa is along 14/15W from 04N-15N,
moving W around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 06N-10N between 13W-18W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W south of
14N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate showers are seen
from 05N-11N between 38W-44W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 51/52W
south of 17N, moving W at 20-25 kt. No significant convection is
associated with the wave at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis extending from
19N73W to 06N75W, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered showers and
tstorms are seen between 68W and the wave axis, from 15N-19N,
including over portions of Hispaniola. The wave will produce
strong trade winds today and tonight along and east of the wave
axis as it passes across the forecast area, before reaching
Central America on Sunday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W
to 09N20W to 09N25W to 06N28W to 06N31W. The ITCZ begins near
06N31W to 07N39W, then continues west of a tropical wave from
08N42W to 08N50W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is
noted along and south of the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between
22W-29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level ridge is over the NW Gulf, and a 1019 mb surface high
is analyzed near 29N93W. A surface trough is over the NE Gulf
from 31N86W to 28N89W. A low to mid level trough is near northern
Florida. Upper-level divergence over the NE Gulf is enhancing
scattered moderate convection north of 25N and east of 87W.
Elsewhere north of 24N and east of 90W, isolated showers and
tstorms are noted. A surface trough over the western Bay of
Campeche is producing scattered tstorms south of 20N west of
94.5W.

Weak high pressure will dominate the region through the weekend
with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the Gulf. A weak
frontal boundary will meander Tue and Wed over the northeast Gulf
where broad low pressure may develop.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave in the central Caribbean.

Upper-level cyclonic flow prevails over the NW Caribbean and
northern portions of Central America. Upper-level ridging
covers the remainder of the Caribbean. A cluster of showers and
tstorms is seen from 16N-18N between 83W-87W. Isolated showers and
tstorms are seen near the Yucatan Channel. ASCAT data depicts
fresh to strong winds across most of the central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong tradewinds will prevail across the central
Caribbean through this weekend, pulsing to near gale force during
the overnight hours off of Colombia. An active tropical wave will
move W across the central Caribbean today, then reach Central
America on Sun. The next significant tropical wave will cross the
Lesser Antilles Mon night and reach 70W by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low to mid level trough near northern Florida is drawing
moisture toward the area. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen
north of 30N between 75W-80W, and in between the NW Bahamas and
South Florida as well as in the Florida Straits. A surface trough
extends from 30N62W to a 1021 mb low near 29N64W to 28N68W.
Isolated showers are E of the low. A cold front enters the area
near 32N46W to 30N53W to 31N58W. A pre-frontal trough is from
30N45W to 28N50W. Scattered showers are from 28N-30N between 46W-
51W. Surface ridging prevails across the E Atlantic, anchored by a
1024 mb high near 31N35W.

High pressure across the central Atlc will build modestly westward
and into the Bahamas and S Florida through this weekend. Fresh to
strong winds are expected off Hispaniola late tonight in the wake
of an active tropical wave moving through the central Caribbean.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net