[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave, currently over western Africa, extends its axis
along 13W from 05N-13N. At this time, scattered moderate
convection is noted north of 06N between 12W-16W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W and south
of 12N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted from
04N-11N between 36W-42W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 50W and
south of 15N, moving west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection
is associated with this feature at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 72W and
southward of 19N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 200 nm on either side of the wave's axis,
particularly north of 17N affecting the Mona Passage and
Dominican Republic. The wave will continue to enhance shower
activity for the ABC Islands and Hispaniola through today. The
wave will also strengthen the trade winds across most of the
Caribbean today as it passes across the forecast area, before
reaching Central America on Sunday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W
to 10N19W to 07N28W. The ITCZ begins near 07N28W to 07N38W, then
continues west of a tropical wave from 07N41W to 08N49W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical waves described above,
scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough
from 05N-10N between 20W-26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep-layered ridging covers much of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1018 mb
surface high is near 30N92W. To the southwest, a surface trough
is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 23N93W to 19N93W. Light
to gentle easterly winds prevail across the basin. The eastern
Gulf has scattered showers prevailing, particularly east of 88W.

Weak high pressure will dominate the region through
the weekend with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across
the Gulf. A weak frontal boundary will meander Tue and Wed over
the northeast Gulf where broad low pressure may develop.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean.

Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the
western Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades prevail across
the central and eastern Caribbean, with strong winds north of
Colombia.

Fresh to strong tradewinds prevail will across the
central Caribbean through the weekend, pulsing to near gale
force during the overnight hours off of Colombia. The tropical
wave will continue moving west across the central Caribbean
today, then reach Central America on Sun. The next significant
tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles Mon night and reach
70W by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Tropical Waves section for information on the tropical
waves in the Atlantic.

A weak 1021 mb low is centered near 29N64W, with surface trough
extending from the low to 29N68W. Surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered
near 31N35W.

High pressure across the central Atlantic will build westward and
into the Bahamas and S Florida through the weekend. Fresh to
strong winds are expected off Hispaniola late tonight in the wake
of an active tropical wave moving through the central Caribbean.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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