[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010627
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
227 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and lower
pressure in Colombia will contribute to gale force winds over
the Gulf of Venezuela and off of the Colombian coast tonight
through early Monday morning. Expect seas heights ranging from
10 to 14 feet near Colombia, and less than 8 feet in the Gulf
of Venezuela. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 27W from
16N southward, moving W at 10-15kt. This wave has little surface
component, however, the wave is noticeable in the wave model
diagnostics and TPW imagery. Scattered showers are noted from
04N-08N between the coast of Africa and 25W-28W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 58W from
15N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are
within 200 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 06N-12N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 69W
from 19N southward, moving 10-15 kt. Dry air and subsidence
prevails in the wave's environment inhibiting convection at this
time. TPW imagery also shows lack of moisture on either side of
the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 10N18W. The ITCZ continues from 10N18W to
07N25W, then resumes west of the tropical wave near 06N28W to
05N40W to 05N51W. Excluding the convection in the proximity of the
tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is seen along the
ITCZ from 03N-07N between 30W-37W and closer to the coast of
Brazil from 05N-07N between 46W-55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation prevails across the western
Gulf while ridging is in place across the eastern Gulf. The
upper level southerly flow will continue to bring tropical
moisture into the central and eastern Gulf enhancing scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Convection extends from the
Bay of Campeche north to 27N and west of 92W to the coast of FL.
On the western Gulf, no significant convection is seen at this
time except near the coast of Mexico and south Texas. Besides the
gusty winds from convection, light to gentle east to southerly
winds prevails across much of the basin.

A trough will develop each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula
and move offshore to across the Bay of Campeche each evening,
bringing fresh to locally strong NE winds to the eastern Bay of
Campeche during the evening hours. Ample deep moisture will
continue to spread from the northwestward Caribbean toward the
southern and SW Gulf through at least Tue, leading to an increase
of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may contain strong
gusty winds, frequent lightning and rough seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical wave
currently moving across the Caribbean and the Gale warning in
effect.

Upper level ridge controls the western Caribbean while an east
to west trough extends from the Atlantic through the central
Caribbean Sea. TPW shows low level moisture across much of the
basin with the exception of the northwest Caribbean showing
higher moisture content from the Gulf of Honduras to Cuba.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 19N to 22N near
western Cuba. Elsewhere, due to the presence of dry air and
subsidence, no other significant convection is noted in the basin.
Some scattered showers are seen near the ABC Islands but this is
associated to the nearby Atlantic tropical wave along 58W.

Moderate to fresh easterly trades prevail across the basin with
strong to gale force tonight over the central and SW Caribbean
Sea tonight.

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low pres
over northern Colombia will support minimal gale force winds
tonight just offshore Colombia along with high seas. This gradient
will also support strong to near gale force winds over much of
the central and SW Caribbean through the week, with moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms over the NW
Caribbean will continue to spread northwestern toward the southern
Gulf of Mexico through early Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves
currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Upper-level diffluence prevails across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and west Atlantic enhancing scattered moderate convection west of
80W, affecting the north central coast of FL, the northern Bahamas
and adjacent waters to 60W. A stationary front extends from 31N47W
to 26N57W with scattered showers in the vicinity. Further east,
a weakening stationary front extends from 31N35W to 26N41W. Surface
ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1030 mb high centered near 41N21W. Light to gentle tradewinds
prevail north of 18N, while moderate to strong winds are noted
south of 18N.

A relatively weak high pres ridge will remain along 24N through
the early part of the week before shifting northward to 26N/27N
Wed night through the end of the week. A weak cold front will move
across the waters N of 27N Mon and Mon night, then stall from near
29N65W to the central Bahamas Tue afternoon. A weak pressure pattern
will persist N of 23N by mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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