[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Oscar centered near 27.4N 58.3W at 0300 UTC, moving N
at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is within 30 nm of the center.
Scattered moderate to strong convection in bands within 200 nm
east of the center. Oscar is forecast to accelerate north-
northeastward later today ahead of a large mid-latitude trough,
then move rapidly across the northern central Atlantic. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT31
KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES for
OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT1.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 38W from 01N to 11N, moving west at 15
kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90
nm on either side of the axis from 05N to 12N.

A tropical wave is along 55W S of 14N, moving west at 10-15 kt.
Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed over the continent of Africa east
of 16W. The ITCZ extends from 09N16W to 06N37W, then resumes
from 06N38W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is from 05N to 10N between 19W and 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico
near New Orleans. Overcast multilayered clouds are over the Bay
of Campeche S of 25N west of 91W. Mostly fair weather is over
the rest of the Gulf. Mostly zonal flow is noted at upper levels.

High pressure will gradually shift into the SE U.S. and maintain
benign marine weather through this afternoon. Winds and seas
will increase across the Gulf on Wed as a cold front moves off
the Texas coast Wed night. The front will reach from near Panama
City Florida to Tuxpan Mexico Thu night, and from Tampa Florida
to NW Yucatan by Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from Cuba to the Yucatan
Channel. Scattered moderate convection is south of 20N in the
Gulf of Honduras. Further south, clusters of scattered moderate
convection are south of 12N in the SW Caribbean, and include the
coast of NW Colombia. Isolated trade wind showers are across the
remainder of the Caribbean.

The stationary front will dissipate later today. Moderate to
locally fresh NE trades will persist over the western Caribbean
today. Expect fresh to strong trades from the tropical N Atlc to
the central Caribbean waters through Fri as high pressure builds
into the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from 32N65W across the
southern Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are in the
vicinity of the front.

A dry cold front moving off northern Florida will reach from
Bermuda to southern Florida this afternoon, stall and weaken
from 22N65W to the Windward Passage on Wed, then dissipate by
Thu. Swell associated with Hurricane Oscar east of 60W will
impact the area east of 70W and north of 22N early through Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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